Ukraine's Campaign Against Crimea: How Sustained Strikes Are Eroding Russian Military Capacity

Ukrainian forces carried out at least 184 strikes against Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and Black Sea Fleet vessels during 2024, generating measurable losses in personnel, ships, and supply lines, according to Ukrainian government data.
The human cost stands out most starkly. Ukraine's Prisoners of War Processing Department confirmed at least 1,038 Russian soldiers from Crimea-based units killed between January 1 and December 31, 2024. This figure accounts only for personnel stationed on the peninsula itself; it excludes troops rotated through from other Russian military districts. The actual toll from Ukraine's Crimea-focused operations is likely considerably higher.
Naval Losses
Russia's Black Sea Fleet spent 2024 under sustained pressure—and the casualty figures explain why. On March 24, Ukrainian forces fired ten missiles that struck two Russian landing ships, the Yamal and the Azov, destroying both in a single engagement, as the BBC reported. Landing ships in the Ropucha and Alligator classes are critical to Russia's amphibious operations in the region. They transport armor, ammunition, and troops. Losing two at once compressed Moscow's capacity to conduct amphibious operations significantly.
Ukraine's strikes also targeted Russia's supply lines. In August 2024, Ukraine's Navy destroyed a Russian ferry at the port of Kavkaz—on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait—that had been carrying fuel and munitions into Crimea, Reuters reported. Kavkaz serves as one of Russia's primary crossing points; the ferry's destruction interrupted a vital supply corridor that Moscow had relied on since the Kerch Bridge sustained damage in 2022. Ukraine additionally struck the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters in Sevastopol during 2024, extending an attack campaign against Russian command-and-control infrastructure that began in 2023.
Energy Infrastructure Under Fire
Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil and gas facilities continued throughout 2024, with targeting data tracked by the Open Source Centre and the Caspian Policy Center. Crimea's power supply has been strained since 2022, when Ukrainian forces cut the North Crimean Canal and destroyed undersea electricity cables. The 2024 strikes accelerated the strain on remaining fuel reserves on the peninsula. An oil depot in occupied Crimea was hit in October 2024, the BBC reported, followed by a Russian retaliatory wave; Ukraine's air force intercepted 32 drones and two missiles aimed at Kyiv.
This sequence of action and response matters. Russia has repeatedly answered Ukrainian strikes on logistics and energy targets with long-range air attacks on Ukrainian cities—particularly Kyiv. Ukraine intercepts most of these incoming missiles and drones but absorbs some damage. This escalation pattern has repeated for eighteen months without either side breaking the cycle.
Why This Campaign Matters
Ukraine's 2024 operations reflect a specific military strategy: prevent Russia from using Crimea as a secure rear base. Before 2022, Crimea functioned as a combined logistics hub, naval base, and strategic buffer—geographically distant from the front lines and, for practical purposes, beyond Ukrainian reach. The cumulative effect of long-range missiles, naval drones, and maritime strikes has steadily eroded that safety. Moscow now must divert air defense systems to Crimea, relocate naval units further east, and contend with unpredictable supply flows through the Kerch Strait.
This repositioning carries a tradeoff. Russian warships based further east at Novorossiysk are harder for Ukraine to target, yet they can still launch cruise missiles across the Black Sea into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine has degraded Russia's Crimea-centered strike capacity without fully eliminating its long-range maritime threat.
The trajectory beyond 2024 hinges on two variables. First: whether Ukraine's Western partners expand access to longer-range strike systems. Second: whether Russia's substantially reinforced air defenses in Crimea can keep pace with Ukraine's evolving drone and missile capabilities. The infrastructure campaign, in particular, shows no signs of slowing.


