Fremantle on Top, Brisbane Roaring, and Sydney in Turmoil: The 2026 AFL Finals Storylines

Fremantle finished the 2026 AFL home-and-away season on top of the ladder with 19 wins — the club's most in any campaign — but they limp into September carrying fresh doubts. Two losses in their final three matches, both in Melbourne, have checked the momentum of a side that won all 12 games at home by an average of 38 points. Defender Brennan Cox has a new calf injury and captain Alex Pearce carries lingering fitness concerns. The minor premiership, clinched with a round 23 win over Adelaide at Optus Stadium, still sits in Perth. Whether the flag does too is the question.

Up forward, Fremantle have the firepower. Jye Amiss kicked 58 goals, Josh Treacy 54, and Patrick Voss 41. Three talls (key-position forwards, for the unfamiliar) each topping 40 is rare. The problem is at the other end, and on the road.

Brisbane loom as the danger. The Lions have won the past two premierships and were runners-up in 2023. They won 10 of their past 11 entering the finals, beating Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney along the way. Will Ashcroft — a dual Norm Smith medallist (best afield in a Grand Final, for those new to the medal) — averaged 31 disposals and six clearances (extracting the ball from a contested stoppage) across his past 11 matches.

But Brisbane's defence is the soft underbelly. They rank 11th in the AFL for points conceded — ninth among the 10 finalists. They gave up 24 goals to Carlton about a month ago. Earlier in the year, GWS blew them apart with a 14-goal third quarter. You do not win flags leaking like that.

Then there is Sydney, and the story is nothing like a football problem. Five Swans — Riley Bice, Nick Blakey, Isaac Heeney, James Jordon and Chad Warner — were suspended for the remainder of the 2026 season for a breach of club standards. The sanctions followed a police investigation into an alleged sexual assault at a Melbourne hotel, with reports the players had arranged lap dances. The suspensions came after Sydney's round 23 win and stripped the side of two midfield stars and a key defender for the finals.

The Swans still finished the home-and-away season with five straight wins, all against non-finalists. That record flatters them. Against the eventual top-six sides, Sydney won just once in six attempts. Charlie Curnow, recruited by Sydney in the off-season, kicked 69 goals to win his third Coleman Medal as the competition's leading goalkicker. Logan McDonald added 42. Errol Gulden averaged more than 40 disposals across his final five matches.

And the finals format itself is new. The AFL scrapped the pre-finals bye and introduced a Wildcard Finals Round — described as the biggest finals shake-up in 25 years. More teams, more sudden-death football, less rest. For a Fremantle side with injured defenders and a Brisbane side with a leaky backline, the timing is uncomfortable.

What makes this finals series compelling is the gap between what each contender has proven and what they still must answer. Fremantle dominated for 20 rounds but stumbled late and cannot buy a win in Melbourne. Brisbane are red-hot but concede heavily. Sydney have star power and a Coleman medallist, yet head into September without five players and only one credible scalp from the top six all year.

September sorts it out. It always does.