Gaza Ceasefire at Risk: Peace Envoy Warns Both Sides Are Drifting From the Plan
Nikolay Mladenov, the diplomat overseeing the Gaza ceasefire through a body called the Board of Peace, warned on August 28 that neither Israel nor the Palestinians are sticking to the agreed roadmap — and that the ceasefire could collapse as a result. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Mladenov said there is "no better alternative to the current plan" and that a "return to war would be devastating" Al Jazeera.
The warning comes against a backdrop of ongoing violence. Since the ceasefire took effect in October 2025, 1,303 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli fire and 4,336 wounded, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. The overall toll since the war began in October 2023 stands at 73,438 killed and 174,447 wounded. Days before his latest remarks, Mladenov had described a potential collapse of the truce as a "point of no return," leaving nothing left to rebuild Al Jazeera, Aug. 26.
Who Is Mladenov and What Is the Roadmap?
Mladenov is a Bulgarian diplomat and former UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process — essentially the UN's top envoy for Israeli-Palestinian issues. He was chosen by U.S. President Donald Trump to lead the Board of Peace AP News.
On May 21, he proposed a 15-point roadmap covering Gaza's reconstruction, the disarmament of Palestinian armed groups, a gradual Israeli withdrawal, the mandate of an International Stabilization Force (ISF — a multinational military presence intended to keep the peace), and a restructuring of Gaza's police. The roadmap envisions complete disarmament of Hamas within 281 days across five stages Al Jazeera, May 3. On July 31, the Board of Peace announced that all parties had agreed on the roadmap for the ceasefire's next phase. Hamas said it approved the deal and called on Israel to be held to its commitments.
Israel Rejects the Plan
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the roadmap, denying reports that his government had agreed to allow international troops into Gaza. Hamas has since pledged to hand over its weapons as part of the U.S. plan for Gaza, which Netanyahu has also rejected Al Jazeera, Aug. 26. U.S. envoy Jared Kushner visited the region to try to narrow the gap between Israel and the Board of Peace's plan after Netanyahu's public rejection. A U.S. official said Washington and Israel remain aligned on "the strategic goal" but that Israel has expressed "doubts" requiring further coordination.
Progress on the Ground — With Gaps
Despite the political deadlock, the Board has made structural progress on the stabilization framework. It has determined how the ISF will be deployed and where its forces will be stationed in the Gaza Strip. Morocco agreed to take part in the force. Turkiye will not participate after Israel vetoed Ankara's involvement. Mladenov said the ISF's advance elements should arrive in Gaza soon.
On reconstruction, the Board has received pledges worth $7 billion. Mladenov credited Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye with playing an important role in advancing the agreement with Hamas. He described talks with Israel on increasing humanitarian aid as "good" and expressed hope that a Palestinian national committee would soon assume its responsibilities in Gaza. That body, the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, is a proposed technocratic, non-factional authority — meaning it would be run by professionals rather than political factions — tasked with managing day-to-day civil affairs, public services, and local reconstruction independently of Hamas and other groups.
A Plan That Has Not Stalled, Mladenov Insists
Mladenov has told the UN Security Council that Trump's 20-point plan, whose first phase led to the October 2025 ceasefire and was reported largely complete by March UN News, has not stalled NPR. In April, he said there had been "serious discussions" with Hamas and that implementation of the next phase needed to be agreed quickly Reuters. Diplomatic activity has continued in the background: Hamas political chief Khalil al-Hayya held talks with Egyptian intelligence chief Hassan Rashad before Mladenov's latest warning.
The Security Council has heard equally dire assessments from other voices. On August 25, speakers in a Council session warned that Gaza was at a total breaking point, with 2 million people still trapped and under attack despite the ceasefire and the new peace plan UN Press Release SC16440. The ceasefire's fragility has been a recurring theme: a December 2025 UN report noted that humanitarians continued to face obstructions in delivering aid UN News, and Mladenov warned in May that failure to move forward risked entrenching a divided and devastated Gaza UN News.
The Political Backdrop
Analysts have warned that Netanyahu was exploiting a failing ceasefire to prolong the destruction of Gaza ahead of the Israeli election Al Jazeera, May 25. The escalation of casualties since January, when at least 463 Palestinians had been reported killed since the ceasefire took effect Al Jazeera, Jan. 16, lends weight to that assessment. That figure has nearly tripled in the eight months since.
The broader context here is one of architecture versus reality. What Mladenov has built is substantial in its components: a $7 billion reconstruction pledge, a technocratic civil administration design, an ISF deployment mechanism with a contributing nation identified, and a five-stage disarmament framework accepted by Hamas. What makes it fragile is what it depends on: Israel rejects the roadmap's central provisions, the ceasefire's daily casualty count continues to climb, and the ISF advance elements Mladenov expects "soon" have no publicly confirmed arrival date. The gap between what has been agreed on paper and what has been implemented on the ground is where the ceasefire's future will be decided.
