Politics

Can Andy Burnham Hold Makerfield for Labour?

Eleanor WhitcombePublished 2d ago4 min readBased on 9 sources
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Can Andy Burnham Hold Makerfield for Labour?

Andy Burnham is contesting the Makerfield by-election on 18 June 2026, attempting to return to Westminster as an MP after serving as Mayor of Greater Manchester.

The seat became vacant on 18 May 2026 when Josh Simons stepped down. Simons held Makerfield for Labour from the July 2024 general election with a majority of 5,399 votes (13.4 percentage points) on a 52.5% turnout. Before him, Yvonne Fovargue represented the seat continuously for Labour from 2010 to 2024.

The current Makerfield seat was created by the 2023 boundary review. The previous seat of the same name was dissolved after the 2024 changes; this constituency is its successor, covering broadly the same area in the Wigan borough.

The Candidates

Burnham stands as the Labour and Co-operative candidate. He is stepping down from the directly elected Greater Manchester mayoralty — an office covering ten local authority areas — to contest the seat. BBC News reported his candidacy on 11 June 2026.

The other principal candidates are Robert Kenyon for Reform UK, Jake Austin for the Liberal Democrats, and Michael Winstanley for the Conservatives. BBC News confirmed all four on 8 June 2026.

The Numbers

Labour's 5,399-vote majority from 2024 is solid but not without risk in a by-election. By-election turnout typically falls below general election figures — voters are often less mobilised when a single seat, not the whole parliament, is at stake. A turnout dip can compress majorities and create unexpected swings. The national picture since July 2024 has been complicated by Reform UK's sustained polling strength.

The constituency's 76,641-strong electorate cast just over 40,000 votes at the 2024 turnout rate. The structural challenge for Labour is straightforward: a meaningful decline in Labour-voting turnout combined with strong Reform UK mobilisation could damage the party's position.

Burnham's personal standing is Labour's counterweight. He won the 2024 Greater Manchester mayoral election by a commanding margin and has been a prominent figure in English regional politics for nearly a decade. The open question is whether a profile built on city-region strategy translates to constituency work, where local casework — not broader regional policy — defines the role. His opponents will press this point.

The Conservatives face a different challenge. In 2024, they finished third or fourth in seats of this type, and face the risk of being squeezed between Labour and Reform UK. The Liberal Democrats are contesting ground where they have rarely been competitive.

For Reform UK, the by-election tests whether their 2024 general election vote in parts of the North West can be converted and held in a post-election environment. Robert Kenyon's candidacy is their vehicle for that test.

The broader question this by-election carries is about Labour's durability in its working-class northern heartland. That Burnham — a senior figure — is on the ballot is in itself a signal: Labour is treating the seat as a priority, not a routine hold. Whether voters reciprocate that message will become clear on the night.