Rayner says England's 1.5m homes target is unlikely to be met

Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has said there is only a "slim chance" the government will meet its pledge to build 1.5 million homes in England by the next election. She spoke to the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme, in an interview reported on 13 September 2026 BBC.

Ministers promised at the election to deliver 1.5 million homes, a mix of private and social housing, by the end of this parliament. That means summer 2029 at the latest. The pledge applies to England. Housing is devolved, so it does not cover Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland.

That scale would need an average of 300,000 new properties a year across the parliament. Rayner said the goal had always been a "stretch target". She pointed to "headwinds" making it harder, including the Iran war and rising construction costs.

She also said home starts were up by 15% last year. Starts is the point where construction begins on site. Whitehall, the central government in London, tracks starts as an early indicator of later completions.

In February 2025 Rayner said there are "no excuses" not to build the 1.5 million new homes BBC. In September 2025 Steve Reed said the government is absolutely committed to building 1.5 million new homes in England by 2029 BBC. Ministers set new, mandatory housing targets for all councils in England in July 2024. Ministers announced a planning overhaul to help meet the target in December 2024 Reuters. In December 2025 the Housing Secretary pledged to go further than ever before to hit 1.5 million homes.

The broader context here is that the tone is now more downbeat, and the numbers help explain why. Meeting the target needs three things to move together, like the three legs of a stool. Planning consents, construction capacity and funding for different tenures must all line up. It is like asking a runner to hold a fast pace for every mile of a marathon. Mandatory council targets help with planning. They do not automatically fix labour shortages, materials inflation, interest rates or grant levels for social housing. A 15% rise in starts shows movement. It does not close the gap to 300,000 a year.

Looking at what this means for the politics, the shift from "no excuses" to "slim chance" changes the accountability question. Ministers are managing expectations about the end-point, not just pace. Opposition parties will press on whether the pledge is still a commitment or now an aspiration. Backbenchers, MPs without ministerial jobs, in high-demand seats will listen for local plan timetables and appeal decisions. For what to watch next, expect scrutiny of quarterly starts and completions data for England, of social versus private splits, and of any changes to planning guidance or funding. Whether the rise can be sustained and turned into completions before summer 2029 will shape how Rayner's assessment is judged.