Labour edges National as both major parties sit below 30%
Labour is on 28% and narrowly ahead of National, with both major parties below 30% in the September The Post/Freshwater Strategy poll.
According to The Post, it is the second time in September both majors have sat under 30%. The Post published the result under the headline 'Historic major party slump deepens as Labour edges National in new poll' The Post.
Labour fell 7 points since the June Post/Freshwater Strategy poll but kept a narrow lead, the paper said. National fell 2 points over the same period. The Greens, New Zealand First and ACT all increased their support compared with June. The Opportunity Party polled above the 5% threshold to enter Parliament for the first time in the series RNZ.
On The Post's seat calculation, the coalition bloc would have 60 seats and the parliamentary opposition would have 53, with the Opportunity Party adding seven. That is a hung Parliament. Neither the current coalition bloc nor the opposition bloc would have the numbers to form a government on those figures. Both blocs sit on 60 seats once the Opportunity Party is counted.
The Post said its calculation assumed parties win electorate seats broadly in line with party vote share and keep at least one electorate seat each.
In the preferred prime minister contest, Labour leader Chris Hipkins was on 45%, up 1 point from June. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was on 35%, down 2 points. Sixteen percent chose neither Hipkins nor Luxon, and 4% were unsure.
On the direction of the country, 56% of voters said it is heading in the wrong direction and 27% said it is heading in the right direction, the poll found.
Freshwater Strategy spoke to 1011 eligible New Zealand voters aged 18 and over online between 4 and 11 September. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3% and the data were weighted to be representative of voters. It was funded by Infrastructure New Zealand.
The September result follows earlier results in the same series. In June, The Post reported Luxon polled well below Hipkins on the cost of living, which it described as voters' top concern. In October 2025, an earlier Post/Freshwater poll showed 49% wanted Luxon gone.
The broader context here is dealignment rather than a straight swing from one major to the other. Both majors are losing share at once, while the smaller parties are gaining. That makes the party vote and the 5% threshold critical. A first-time result above 5% for the Opportunity Party changes the numbers in Parliament if it holds to election day, because seven seats in the middle deny a majority to either side under MMP.
Looking at what this means for formation talks, the numbers point to leverage shifting to the smaller parties on the crossbench. A 60-60 tie gives the holder of the balance decisive weight over confidence and supply, ministerial posts and policy concessions. For strategists in both major parties, the question is no longer only how to win back lost vote, but which post-election partner is viable and at what price. On these figures, neither bloc can govern without a further agreement.
