New Modelling Lifts Australia's Pre-1788 Indigenous Population to 2.2 Million

New modelling estimates the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population at 2.2 million before the First Fleet arrived in 1788, compared with early estimates of 250,000. The Guardian

The research was conducted by the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CIEHF) and published in Nature Human Behaviour. The Guardian

The study estimates 2.06 million excess deaths between 1788 and 1861 — deaths above what would have been expected without colonisation. It places the surviving Indigenous population at about 7% of its original size. The Guardian

Co-author Corey Bradshaw, a global ecology professor at Flinders University, attributed the excess deaths to smallpox and other diseases, massacres, dispossession and malnutrition. The Guardian Prior work by Bradshaw found the 1789 smallpox epidemic killed up to 220,000 Aboriginal people. The Guardian

In the 1971 count following the 1967 referendum, 115,953 people identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander. The Guardian The estimated population reached about 798,400 in 2016. University of Wollongong The 2021 census counted 812,728 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, revised upwards to 983,257 after post-census recounts. The Guardian The population is projected to reach 1,179,100 in 2031, up from 983,700 in 2021. Australian Bureau of Statistics

University of Wollongong research published in 2021 had already reported that the First Australians grew to a population of millions, much more than previous estimates. University of Wollongong

The broader context here is denominators. Think of the pre-contact figure as the starting number in a calculation. A larger starting population increases the estimate of excess deaths and lowers the share who survived.

In my view, the importance for readers is less the single figure than what it brings into comparison. The 2.06 million excess deaths between 1788 and 1861, the reduction to about 7%, and the twentieth-century counts describe different phases of one population history: sharp fall, long absence from official counts, then growth and better identification. Counting remains difficult, with definitions, identification, geography and undercounting affecting totals, while historical modelling must work from ecology, carrying capacity, disease spread and incomplete colonial records. How the Nature Human Behaviour estimates hold up to replication and critique will shape their use in history, education and policy, while the projection to 2031 points to recovery at the other end of the curve.