Kenney Says UCP Loss in Calgary-Shaw Is a Warning on the Separation Referendum
Former Alberta premier Jason Kenney says the United Conservative Party's byelection loss in Calgary-Shaw is a warning about the Oct. 19 separation referendum. The Globe and Mail
The New Democrats won the seat on Monday night, Sept. 14. Kenney spoke early Tuesday, Sept. 15. He said the result sends a strong message about how the referendum debate is affecting conservative supporters.
Writing on X, Kenney addressed voters who plan to send a message by voting to start the separation process. He said they should take note of an NDP win in what he described as the most conservative part of urban Canada. He framed Calgary-Shaw as territory the UCP should hold with ease. His message was blunt.
Kenney said a vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election. He said it would also help the Liberal Party of Canada win far more Alberta seats. He said the debate over quitting Canada is alienating conservative voters who love Canada. At the same time, he said, it is pushing disaffected nationalist supporters toward left-centre opponents such as the NDP.
Conservative strategist Ken Boessenkool echoed the criticism. He called the loss a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with what he characterized as a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum.
The referendum question asks whether Alberta should stay in Canada or hold a second, binding referendum on starting the process to quit Confederation. Confederation is the constitutional arrangement that joins the provinces under Ottawa. Premier Danielle Smith has said she had no choice but to put separation on the ballot to put the contentious issue to rest. A UCP-led committee reviewing the Forever Canadian petition had recommended a referendum question on whether Alberta should remain part of Canada. CTV News
Elections Alberta set Election Day in Calgary-Shaw for Monday, Sept. 14. Elections Alberta Unofficial results were reported after voting closed at 8 p.m. that evening. Official results are to be announced on Thursday, Sept. 24. The Canadian Press account of Kenney's comments was published Sept. 15. Global News
Calgary often decides provincial elections. In the 2023 general election won by the UCP under Smith, the party took 12 of 26 Calgary seats. The next provincial election is set for Oct. 18, 2027.
Kenney's comments follow months of positioning. In February, he said the governing UCP caucus has "no business" signing a petition to force a vote on Alberta quitting Canada. Former NDP premier Rachel Notley has blamed Smith's UCP government for foisting what Notley calls a separatist agenda on Albertans. Notley and Kenney are now co-chairing a Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign. Smith, for her part, proposed a sovereignty act, a law to assert provincial authority, during the race for the UCP leadership.
The broader context here is about coalition management rather than constitutional law. Calgary-Shaw matters less for one seat than for what it suggests about turnout and vote transfers, much like a test vote that shows where each side's supporters stand. A separation ballot question can pull pro-Canada conservatives one way and sovereignty-minded voters the other. It can also give the NDP a second-preference opening among voters who might otherwise stay with the UCP or stay home. Kenney is wagering that federal Conservatives will read the same signal. On his logic, a provincial debate that weakens UCP margins in Calgary could soften Conservative margins in Alberta as well, creating room for the Liberals in a small but meaningful number of urban ridings.
