Luxon leaves Māori seats question open in MMP referendum plan
Christopher Luxon has not ruled out including the future of the Māori seats in his proposed referendum on MMP.
He told RNZ the constitutional policy would be released closer to the election as part of justice policy. RNZ The scope of any vote is still open.
Luxon first raised the referendum on Newstalk ZB, when asked if he would hold one if he is prime minister next year. The Prime Minister's office did not answer multiple requests from RNZ over the past month about timing and a possible Māori seats question.
The seats question has come up before. For the 2011 MMP referendum, the ACT Party proposed a question on the Māori seats at select committee, the group of MPs that examines proposed laws. It was blocked by National's confidence and supply agreement with the then-Māori Party, the support deal that kept National in government.
New Zealand First is campaigning on a referendum on the Māori seats. RNZ Leader Winston Peters referred to the 1986 Royal Commission into the electoral system when discussing that policy.
No agency will put a number on Luxon's proposal. The Electoral Commission said it cannot give a ballpark cost for an MMP referendum because it depends on costs at the time. It said the cost would depend on whether the vote was held alongside a general election, as a standalone poll, or by postal vote.
The Ministry of Justice said it could not give a ballpark figure for running different referendums. There is no official costing for the policy. The delivery model, or how the vote is run, is the main factor in the cost.
The closest comparison is the four-year-term referendum the coalition dropped before the election. The Ministry of Justice had set aside about $25 million for that vote. That was $18.7 million to run the referendum and $6.2 million for an information campaign.
A Cabinet paper put the cost of that dropped referendum at about $27 million, including $9.21 million for a public information campaign. The difference between the set-aside and the Cabinet paper figure reflects different stages of costing. It is not a set budget for any future MMP vote.
Recent costs show the gap between votes held with an election and votes held on their own. New Zealand's last referendums held with a general election were in 2020, on the End of Life Choice Act and cannabis legalisation. Together they cost $12.9 million, about $5.5 million under budget. Running the 2020 election itself cost $99.9 million. New Zealand's last referendums held outside a general election were the flag referendums in 2015 and 2016, which the Electoral Commission delivered for under $13.6 million against a budget of more than $15.6 million.
The broader context here is process and coalition management. For Beehive staff, the justice policy release will set the wording, timing and law needed for a vote. For Press Gallery watchers, the things to track are how a select committee handles referendum law, past confidence and supply limits around the Māori seats, and competing coalition partner promises on electoral and constitutional change. Cost will follow those decisions, especially whether any vote runs with the general election or stands alone.
