Politics

UK Job Vacancies Fall to Lowest Level Since Before COVID

Eleanor WhitcombePublished 2month ago4 min readBased on 5 sources
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UK Job Vacancies Fall to Lowest Level Since Before COVID

Job vacancies across the UK fell by 31,000 between March and May 2026 compared with the same months a year before, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics on 19 June 2026. That represents a 4.2% drop, and it extends a decline that has now pushed the total to 10.6% below levels before the coronavirus pandemic — a shift that seemed almost unthinkable during the labour shortages of 2021 and 2022, when employers struggled to find staff.

The downward trend has been steady through the first half of 2026. Vacancies stood at 711,000 in January, sliding to around 705,000 in the three months to April, according to earlier ONS data published in April. The April-to-June reading was the lowest figure in five years at that time, with annual falls of 65,000 (8.3%) in the January-to-March period. The May bulletin showed the pattern continuing: vacancies were 54,000 (7.1%) lower year-on-year, with the gap below pre-pandemic levels widening to 83,000.

Looking back further sharpens the picture. From October-to-December 2024 through February 2026, the ONS recorded a cumulative fall of 73,000 vacancies (9.2%), according to the February 2026 bulletin. This decline was spread widely across the economy: 14 of the 18 industries tracked by the ONS recorded annual falls in both November 2025–January 2026 and again in January–March 2026.

The latest figures offer a small suggestion that the rate of decline may be steadying. In March to May 2026, vacancies fell in 10 of 18 industries compared with a year earlier — fewer industries in decline than in each of the two preceding periods. Whether this signals the bottom of the market or is simply a blip in the data will become clearer as figures for the second half of 2026 arrive.

The broader context here is worth pausing on. A total falling across fewer industries still shows that demand for labour is softening overall, but it may mean the sharpest pain has already hit sectors like retail, hospitality, and professional services — the first areas to feel the squeeze. Parts of the economy where vacancies are still rising deserve close attention: they may point to skills shortages or specific hiring needs that a softening headline figure can hide.

Employers have pointed to the April 2026 rise in employer National Insurance contributions — a payroll tax on employers, established in the October 2024 Budget — as one reason they have held back on hiring. The vacancy figures alone cannot separate that effect from broader economic weakness or from the global uncertainty that has dented business confidence since the start of 2026. But the continued fall in vacancies even after the National Insurance rise took effect means the question of how much that policy has cost employers remains live.

For those watching the Bank of England's thinking on inflation and wages, the steady drop in vacancies matters. The relationship between job vacancies and unemployment — a measure of how tight the labour market is — has been loosening for more than a year. This weakens the argument that worker scarcity will force wages up significantly, though actual earnings figures remain the clearer test of whether that is happening.

The ONS will publish its next Labour Market Overview — with fresh employment, unemployment and earnings data — as part of the same June release. Vacancies, as an early indicator of broader labour market health, have now moved in one direction consistently enough that the next figures will matter less for whether the jobs market is cooling and more for how fast that cooling is happening, and which sectors feel it most.