Labor's migration target: what the 245,000 promise means
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke says net overseas migration will fall to 245,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2027-28. The Guardian
Net overseas migration is arrivals minus departures. The Australian Bureau of Statistics puts it at 292,000 in the year to March, down from 299,000 in December.
On students, Labor plans two changes. It will restrict visa hopping, where a student switches from one visa to another to keep extending a stay. It will also restrict visas for family members, so the vast majority of students must come alone.
Australia issued more than 337,000 international student visas last year. About 45,000 of those went to dependants or family members.
On visitors, Labor plans to add a no further stay condition to all visitor visas, which stops holders applying for most other visas while in Australia. It also plans new compliance measures to ensure foreign citizens without a valid visa leave the country.
On skilled visas, Labor plans to update the visa lists to prioritise healthcare, construction, education and law enforcement. No new thresholds or occupations were specified. There is no change to the points test for selecting migrants or to the employer sponsorship system.
On working holidaymakers, Labor plans a ballot system, like a lottery, for years two and three with a regional work requirement. It also plans to hold processing times for working holidaymaker applications to three months.
Net overseas migration was around 540,000 in 2022. It was about 300,000 in 2025, according to SBS reporting, and the government had set a target of cutting it from 300,000 to 225,000. ABC The updated pathway is 245,000 this financial year and 225,000 in 2027-28.
The broader context here is how the package is built. This is not a single cap or a new law. It is a set of admin levers across students, visitors, skilled lists, working holidaymakers and compliance. Each lever is modest on its own. Together they aim to reduce both arrivals and length of stay, which drives the net figure.
What to watch now is delivery. Limits on hopping and dependants will turn on policy detail, what evidence is needed and review rights. A rule for all visitors needs consistent decisions by case officers and funded overstay work. Skilled lists only bite if state nominators, employers and assessing authorities can use them. And a ballot plus a three-month standard will test Home Affairs processing discipline when demand peaks.
