Oil Eased on Extra Saudi Barrels, But European Gas Stayed Expensive
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2026, after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman, and eased in Asian trade on Thursday, Sept. 17, extending those losses. The fall was reported alongside a rise in U.S. crude inventories, oil held in storage tanks. Reuters
Those losses reversed part of the prior gain. On Monday, Sept. 14, oil had settled about 1% higher on worries about energy supplies after new strikes. Reuters The reported supply risk was in Saudi Arabia. A pipeline outage threatened the loss of 4% of global oil supply, with Saudi stocks in ports enough for 5-7 days to maintain exports. Reuters Saudi Arabia's crude supply had already fallen by 2.3 million barrels per day to 6 million barrels per day in August. Barrels per day is the standard rate for oil flow. Reuters
European gas storage was reported separately. On Sept. 16, 2026 at 6AM CEST, Gas Infrastructure Europe reported EU storage at 775.00 TWh stored and 68.49% full. TWh, or terawatt-hours, is a unit of energy. Austria held 67.31 TWh stored and was 67.12% full. Belgium held 4.52 TWh stored and was 59.39% full.
Those levels compare with a thin spring. Reuters reported in May 2026 that European inventories were at about 38.2% of capacity, against a typical seasonal level of roughly 52%. Reuters By July, the Wall Street Journal reported sites across the European Union were about 52% full, with injection rates, the pace of pumping gas into storage, running below last year's pace. In January, accelerated withdrawals had left inventories less than 52% full. The current level compares with 93.31% full in early December 2023, with Spain at 98.61% full and Germany at 93.99% full, cited by the Wall Street Journal from Gas Infrastructure Europe data.
Spot and near-term gas prices were reported as follows. Reuters reported on May 21, 2026 that prices at the Dutch TTF gas hub, the main market where European gas prices are set, were hovering around 50 euros per megawatt hour, a unit of energy price, after having risen to 74 euros per megawatt hour in March. On Sept. 3, the Wall Street Journal reported European natural-gas prices climbed more than 2% to just shy of 74 euros a megawatt-hour amid what it described as severely disrupted supply flows from Qatar. WSJ
Prices agreed now for later delivery, called futures, were above official assumptions. CME Group quoted October 2026 Dutch TTF Calendar Month Futures at 79.520, November at 79.305, December at 79.131 and January 2027 at 78.964. Further out, ICE listed the Dutch TTF Summer 27 contract at 56.060 as of Sept. 14, 2026, and the Q3 27 contract at 52.295 as of Sept. 11, 2026. The European Central Bank's projections foresaw December gas futures at 60.1 euros per megawatt hour under the baseline scenario, its central forecast, and at 77 euros under the adverse scenario, its tougher case. Reuters
The broader context here is that crude and gas are on different paths. Crude drew short-term help from floating and rerouted barrels via Oman. Gas did not. December TTF near 79 euros is priced above the ECB adverse case of 77 euros.
In my view, the storage arithmetic helps explain much of that spread. The move from 38.2% in May to 68.49% in mid-September is a large refill, like restocking a pantry after spring. It still leaves Europe entering autumn without the near-full cushion of December 2023. The winter-to-summer shape, with near 79 euros for winter 2026-27 against low-50s for summer and Q3 2027, points to a winter premium for having gas available when needed rather than the average balance for the year. For inflation, the general rise in prices that lifts household bills and borrowing costs, that matters. Gas at current forwards keeps upward pressure even as crude spot softens on Saudi replacement cargoes.
