Sweden's Government Changes Hands After a Three-Seat Election

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson has resigned after his ruling right-wing bloc was defeated by the centre-left opposition in the general election.

Kristersson announced his resignation in a post on X on Thursday afternoon, BBC reported. The announcement came after Sunday's vote and before formal certification of the results, expected to be finalised this weekend.

Preliminary votes from Sunday's election showed about 50,000 votes separated the two blocs. Opposition parties led by Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats are projected to win 176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag, Sweden's parliament. Kristersson's bloc is projected to win 173 seats, according to Swedish Election Authority data. Three seats divide the two sides.

Andersson has initiated talks with the Left Party, the Centre Party and the Green Party about forming a government. Those discussions have begun while the results remain subject to formal certification.

Kristersson's right-wing bloc consists of the Moderates, the Sweden Democrats, the Christian Democrats and the Liberals. The Sweden Democrats lost support for the first time since entering parliament in 2010, down three percentage points from 2022.

The broader context here is the difficulty of governing on a three-seat edge. A 176-173 division leaves almost no room for error. It is like trying to pass laws when a single absence can shift the result. For Andersson, the immediate challenge is not only reaching an agreement with three distinct partners but sustaining it vote after vote in the Riksdag. Narrow majorities of this kind tend to give small partners outsized leverage, and they reward tight coordination. They also mean the opposition remains close enough to contest each decision.

Looking at what this means for the sequence ahead, timing is important. A resignation announced on Thursday, talks already under way, and certification still pending point to a compressed handover period. Projections provide the political signal. Certification provides the formal basis. Until the formal count is complete, the numbers remain projections rather than final results, and government formation remains a negotiation rather than a conclusion.

In my view, the Sweden Democrats' decline deserves close attention. A first loss of support since 2010 breaks a run with no previous decline since that year, even if the party remains part of a competitive bloc. A drop of three percentage points in an election decided by about 50,000 votes can reshape internal weight among allies. It does not by itself explain the overall outcome. Seat totals reflect transfers across parties and blocs, and those movements cannot be read from top-line projections alone. The talks Andersson has opened will test where those voters went and what kind of governing arrangement can hold.