Douglas Lumsden won Aberdeen South for the Scottish Conservatives on 19 June, overturning an SNP seat with a majority of more than 6,000 votes. It was the Conservatives' first Westminster by-election victory in Scotland since before the Scottish Parliament was created in 1999, according to The Telegraph.

The same night, Lara Bird, a barrister standing part-time, held Arbroath and Broughty Ferry for the SNP, according to The National. One gain, one hold—Scotland's electoral map offered different readings depending on which result you emphasised.

Aberdeen South: The Scale of the Swing

A majority of 6,000 in a single-seat contest is substantial. The SNP had held Aberdeen South, and a swing of that size suggests a significant loss of nationalist votes rather than a gentle drift away. Whether it reflects dissatisfaction with the SNP's record at Holyrood (the Scottish Parliament), concern about the energy transition among the local oil-and-gas workforce, or simple mid-term fluctuation in a seat the SNP never held strongly is not yet clear.

What is clear is the historical significance for the Scottish Conservatives. Their previous Westminster by-election win in Scotland happened before devolution—before the Scottish Parliament existed, before three referendums, and during the period when Scottish Conservative representation at Westminster had shrunk to almost nothing. Lumsden's win does not reverse that history, but it gives the party concrete evidence to cite as it heads toward the 2026 Scottish Parliament elections.

Aberdeen South lies in Scotland's north-east, a region shaped by energy, fishing and farming. Politically, it is genuinely competitive territory—it has elected Conservative, Labour and SNP MPs at different times. A Conservative gain here is more plausible than it would be in, say, central Glasgow. That context does not lessen the result; it frames it accurately.

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry: The SNP's Counter-Story

The SNP's retention of Arbroath and Broughty Ferry—covering parts of Angus and the Dundee area—matters precisely because it stops the evening from reading as a one-way nationalist collapse. Bird's win provides the SNP a clear narrative to set against Lumsden's victory.

Bird's background is worth noting. A practising barrister who stood while working, she is not a traditional career politician. The SNP has increasingly fielded professional candidates with outside credibility in by-elections; whether this reflects deliberate strategy or the shape of the candidate pool at Westminster level is not often discussed publicly by the party.

Arbroath covers some of the SNP's most reliable territory in Scotland—Angus and constituencies near Dundee have returned nationalist MSPs (members of the Scottish Parliament) and MPs consistently since the 2010s. A hold here was expected and delivered.

What Two Results Tell Us

Taken together, the contests show that Scottish politics remains genuinely competitive across different regions, and that no single party currently dominates everywhere. The Conservatives gained one seat; the SNP held one. Labour, which has been gradually rebuilding its Scottish operation since 2024, was not part of the story on 19 June.

For the Scottish Conservatives, the Aberdeen South result is evidence that a revival at Holyrood is realistic rather than wishful thinking. Lumsden's majority provides a concrete foundation for that argument. For the SNP, Bird's win shows that while their coalition is under pressure in the north-east, they retain support in their heartland areas.

The broader context: these by-elections are Westminster contests—they elect MPs to the UK Parliament. Both seats are covered by devolution; their constituents are separately represented at Holyrood, where the Scottish Parliament holds power over health, education, justice and other areas.