Longer Lives, Slower Growth: Treasury's 40-Year Forecast Explained
Treasury's latest intergenerational report forecasts life expectancy at birth for women will reach almost 90 years by 2065/66, up from about 86 now. For men, it projects a rise to 86 years, up from 82. The Guardian
The same report forecasts Australia's population will reach 39.3 million by 2065/66. That is 1.8 million lower than forecast in the 2023 report. Growth is expected to slow to 0.9% a year over the next four decades, down from 1.4% a year in the previous 40 years.
An extract was released on Sunday, September 20, 2026. The full report was due on Monday. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia's universal healthcare system and medical research were key drivers of rising life expectancy.
Intergenerational reports project the outlook for the economy and the Australian Government's budget over the next 40 years. Think long-range weather forecast, but for the budget. Treasury The report is released every five years. ABC
The political reality here is Canberra loves a 40-year forecast. It rarely has to defend one.
The 2021 report recorded life expectancy at birth in 2018 as 80.9 years for men and 85.0 years for women. Treasury The 2023 report projected life expectancy in 2062-63 would be 89.5 years for women and 87 years for men. ABC
The broader context here is the new round is a small revision, not a rewrite.
The new forecast for women is almost 90, compared with 89.5 last time. The new forecast for men is 86, a touch lower than the 87 pencilled in for 2062-63. Current life expectancy for men is put at 82.1 years. The West
A Treasury page for the 2023 report states the labour force participation rate, the share of people working or looking for work, is expected to decline over the next 40 years. Treasury Treasury projects the number of Australians over age pension age will almost double to about nine million by 2066. The Conversation
The budget picture here is fairly plain. People live longer. Growth slows. Participation softens. More people sit above pension age. Ministers of both stripes have used these reports to justify what they already wanted to do on health, aged care, migration and super.
In my view, the test for the full document on Monday is whether it joins the dots. The government says universal healthcare and research help explain longer lives. Fair enough. The harder question is cost and capacity: what longer lives mean for health spending, care work and revenue when the population base is 1.8 million smaller than projected three years ago and growing more slowly. That is the part worth reading closely, footnotes included.
