Daicos the $1.02 favourite as Brownlow count meets Grand Final week
Collingwood star Nick Daicos went into the 2026 Brownlow Medal count on September 21 as a $1.02 favourite.
The ABC's live blog described Daicos as a strong favourite to win on the night ABC. He had already been named player of the year by AFL coaches and fellow players before the count. Betting markets had him at $1.02 as of 12pm on September 21 Fox Sports.
For newcomers, the Brownlow Medal is the AFL's best-and-fairest award for the home-and-away season. The three field umpires confer after each game and award three votes to the best player, two to the second-best and one to the third-best. A player found guilty of a serious offence by the Tribunal cannot win it.
Last year still shapes this story. Matt Rowell won the 2025 Brownlow with 39 votes, seven clear of Daicos on 32 votes, with Bailey Smith third on 29 AFL. Daicos started that night as the heavy favourite and lost. After that result, the AFL changed its rules to allow umpires to see player stats after games ABC.
The numbers this time are big. The AFL's Brownlow Predictor tipped Daicos to poll 47 votes AFL. Herald Sun tips in live coverage put him on 41 votes in one model and 46 in another. Fox Sports' preview canvassed whether he could reach 50 votes Fox Sports.
Short odds do not hand out votes. Umpires judge impact on the night, not disposals alone. Midfielders who win the ball at stoppages and use it cleanly tend to poll well.
The real betting is for second. The Herald Sun tipped Brisbane co-captain Lachie Neale as runner-up in one model and Western Bulldogs star Marcus Bontempelli as runner-up in another. Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn was named as a smoky. As of 12pm on September 21, Bontempelli and Bailey Smith were both priced at $51 to win.
There was a Grand Final edge to the night. The Brisbane Lions hosted their own Brownlow function at home rather than travelling interstate before the Grand Final. Neale was scheduled to face the AFL Tribunal on the afternoon of September 22 to challenge a one-game striking ban affecting his Grand Final eligibility. Striking covers hitting an opponent and can bring a suspension.
What makes this stand out for fans is the sense of unfinished business. Daicos lost as favourite last year and then swept the coaches and players awards this year. A win would close that loop.
The 2026 Brownlow Medal was scheduled to be broadcast live and free in Australia on Channel Seven and 7mate and streamed on 7plus from 7.30pm AEST AFL. The AFL also provided a live Brownlow Tracker for the vote count.
