A Curia poll commissioned by Forest & Bird published on 21 June 2026 found that approximately two-thirds of New Zealand voters oppose the sale of public conservation land.

RNZ reported the poll, which asked respondents about both their views on conservation land sales and which political party they planned to vote for. This approach matters because it lets Forest & Bird show where opposition sits across the political spectrum — among National voters, Labour voters, and everyone else — rather than just giving a headline number.

The 66 percent opposition figure is significant because it's higher than any single political party's support base. That means voters from government coalition parties are included in that two-thirds. If they weren't, the arithmetic wouldn't add up. This matters politically because it means a minister wanting to sell conservation land can't claim that opposition comes only from the political left. There's no comfortable political cover there.

The policy sits within New Zealand's legal framework. Public conservation land is managed under the Conservation Act 1987 by the Department of Conservation. To change who owns the land — through sale, swap, or other disposal — the government generally needs a law passed by Parliament or an Order in Council, depending on what type of land it is. A minister can't make it happen just by announcing it. This legal requirement means polls like this one tend to show up later in select committee submissions and parliamentary debates, before any actual sale could occur.

Forest & Bird regularly commissions research timed to parliamentary sessions or budget decisions. Publishing a poll in June — mid-year, before Parliament's busier second half — fits a pattern of building public evidence ahead of policy moves or reviews of Crown land.

The Curia polling firm is well known to Parliament's press corps. It does polling for a range of clients, including work for political parties, so advocacy-commissioned polls like this one get the usual scrutiny that comes with that territory. The RNZ report didn't include the sample size, margin of error, or exact fieldwork dates in what could be verified, so those details remain unclear from this source.

The two-thirds figure does establish a political baseline. The sale of conservation land — whether the government calls it rationalisation, iwi settlement, or a way to raise revenue — has repeatedly been unpopular with voters. The 2011 partial asset sales debate, though it focused on state-owned enterprises rather than conservation land, showed how quickly arguments about property rights can become arguments about sovereignty. Conservation land carries extra cultural significance, especially where it overlaps with areas important to Māori, and any government trying to sell it would need to work through the Treaty settlement framework and public opinion at the same time.

For those following this issue, the real value will come when — or if — Forest & Bird or RNZ releases the party-by-party breakdown of the poll. A headline two-thirds number tells you the policy is broadly unpopular. The detailed breakdowns tell you which coalition partner's voters are most opposed, and that's where the real political pressure sits.

Until that detailed data comes out, the 66 percent figure is a clean, straightforward number that advocates, submitters, and opposition MPs will use as they move into the second half of 2026.