Polls Point to Hung Parliament, With Tactical Voting as Decider
Labour would emerge as the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held on 24 September 2026, according to a Survation and 38 Degrees poll of more than 8,000 voters. The Guardian
A hung parliament means no party wins a majority of seats. The forecast comes from a seat-by-seat MRP model, a method that uses a large national poll to estimate the result in every constituency. It was conducted in Andy Burnham's first month as prime minister.
It puts Labour on 272 seats, Reform UK on 153 seats as the official opposition, and the Conservatives on 85 seats in third place.
Vote shares translate unevenly into seats under first-past-the-post, the system where the candidate with the most votes in each local seat wins. The model gives Labour 42% of parliamentary seats on 28% of the vote. Reform UK takes 24% of seats on an identical 24% vote share.
The poll finds room for tactical voting, when voters back a second choice to block a less-liked rival. About 18% of voters in seats where a tactical vote would make a substantial difference say they are willing to vote tactically but are not yet doing so.
If that group voted tactically, the seat outcome changes to Labour on 319 seats, six short of a majority, and Reform UK on 62 seats. Under that scenario Reform UK ceases to be the most likely winner in 91 seats, with 46 going to the Conservatives and 43 to Labour.
Two models, one hung parliament
A separate September 2026 MRP from YouGov also puts Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament were an election held tomorrow, but with Reform UK in third behind Labour and the Conservatives. Bloomberg It was the first YouGov MRP since Burnham became prime minister. YouGov
The YouGov seat projections are Labour 241, down 170 from 2024, Conservatives 130, up 9, Reform UK 123, up 118, Liberal Democrats 71, down 1, SNP 40, up 31, Plaid Cymru 15, up 11, and Greens 9, up 5.
National voting intention is spread across parties. A YouGov poll on 6-7 September 2026 put Labour and Reform UK tied on 23% each, with the Conservatives on 20%, the Greens on 12% and the Liberal Democrats on 11%. YouGov In March, a YouGov poll on 22-23 March 2026 had put Reform UK on 23%, Labour on 19%, the Greens on 18%, the Conservatives on 17% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.
The Survation and 38 Degrees data points to movement on the left since April 2026. Twice as many voters have returned to Labour from the left as from the right. The poll suggests Burnham is attracting left-leaning voters back to Labour motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage.
The tactical margin
Head-to-head numbers show where that anti-Farage vote could go. In September 2026, in a constituency contest between Labour and Reform UK, voters backed Burnham's Labour party by 41% to 26%. YouGov
Tactical willingness is not confined to the left. In September 2026, 36% of current Conservative supporters were prepared to vote tactically for Reform UK to keep the Liberal Democrats out, while 37% were opposed.
Reform UK voters show limited willingness to lend votes elsewhere. Only 8% of current Reform UK voters prefer to back Ed Davey's party, while 34% would stick with voting for Farage's party. That finding dates to March 2025 and provides background rather than a current read. In September 2026, 24% of Britons had a favourable opinion of the Reform leader. YouGov reported that in its MRP from last September prior to February 2026, Labour and Reform UK were the two largest parties in nearly 300 seats.
The broader context here is a parliament shaped less by a single surge than by how efficiently votes stack up. Both MRPs agree Labour benefits from distribution even on vote shares in the low to mid-20s. Both agree Reform UK has converted a 2024 breakthrough into triple-digit seat potential. They differ on whether Reform UK has passed the Conservatives, a reminder that MRP outputs move with modelling assumptions and fieldwork timing.
In my view, the tactical question is now central to Westminster arithmetic. An 18% pool of willing but not yet tactical voters is large enough to decide whether Reform UK finishes as opposition or drops sharply, and whether Labour governs as a large minority or near-majority. That pool also explains the leftward recomposition around Burnham. Voters returning to stop Farage do not need to agree with Labour's full programme to alter the seat count.
Looking at what this means for party strategy, Labour has an incentive to frame contests as binary choices with Reform UK. The Conservatives face pressure on two fronts, gaining 46 seats from Reform UK under full tactical voting in one model while losing voters to Reform UK elsewhere. Reform UK's ceiling depends on whether opposition to it remains divided or consolidates in the seats where it currently leads.
