Costco Topped Profit Forecasts, but a 15-Cent Refund Did Most of the Work
Costco earned $2.998 billion in the fourth quarter, or $6.75 per diluted share, which means profit divided across all shares including stock options. That compares with $2.610 billion, or $5.87 per share, a year earlier. The company disclosed the results on Sept. 24, 2026, in its fourth-quarter and fiscal-year 2026 operating results release. Costco Investor Relations
Net sales for the 16-week fourth quarter were $93.9 billion, up 11.3 percent from $84.4 billion. That figure was reported ahead of the formal earnings release. Yahoo Finance Digitally enabled comparable sales, which count online orders no matter how they are picked up or delivered, rose 19.5 percent in the quarter. Yahoo Finance
Analysts expected $6.54 per share for the quarter. MarketWatch The reported $6.75 was 21 cents ahead. Tariff refunds, or money returned after import taxes were reversed, contributed 15 cents per share to fourth-quarter earnings. MarketWatch Bloomberg Tax described the quarter as a profit beat following a benefit related to tariff refunds. Bloomberg Tax
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Costco had reported net sales of $84.4 billion, an 8.0 percent increase from $78.2 billion. Costco Investor Relations For the 16-week fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, net sales were $78.2 billion, a 1.0 percent increase from $77.4 billion. Costco Investor Relations Over three fourth quarters, the reported sequence was $77.4 billion to $78.2 billion to $84.4 billion to $93.9 billion.
Costco's investor relations page listed Q4 earnings for 09/24/2026 and September sales results for 10/07/2026.
The broader context here is earnings quality, or how much profit comes from repeatable business. Back out the 15-cent tariff refund and the adjusted run rate is $6.60. That still exceeds the $6.54 consensus. The excess narrows to 6 cents. In other words, roughly 70 percent of the 21-cent upside was a one-time recovery, not ongoing store profit or membership income. For modeling purposes, that portion should be treated as non-operating. It does not annualize.
Looking at what this means for sales mix, the spread matters. Total net sales grew 11.3 percent while digitally enabled comparable sales grew 19.5 percent. Digitally enabled comps capture e-commerce orders fulfilled across channels. Outgrowth at that differential points to mix shift toward digital fulfillment, with implications for fulfillment cost, last-mile expense allocation, and basket composition. It also complicates year-over-year gross margin comparison if penetration continues to rise. The headline sales number is clear. The cost structure behind it is less so.
In my view, the key variable into the September sales release is whether underlying traffic supports the top line once the refund is isolated. A 15-cent item can settle a quarter. It cannot compound. Analysts tracking forward EPS will likely focus on core merchandise gross margin ex-gas, SG&A leverage on the $93.9 billion base, and renewal behavior. The tariff refund explains much of the variance this quarter. The next print has to do it without that help. Ex-sales reporting cadence is standard for warehouse clubs. The monthly print will allow a cleaner read on traffic and average ticket without the 16-week quarter effect.
