Carney Says He Reviewed Risk of U.S. Military Action Against Canada
Prime Minister Mark Carney says he examined the chance of American military action against Canada, calling it an "extreme tail risk" in an interview with The New York Times.
That phrase means a very unlikely event that would have major effects if it happened. It is the kind of risk governments still make plans for, just in case.
Pressed on President Donald Trump's talk of making Canada a 51st state, Carney said he had looked closely at the idea of a U.S.-led military invasion. He would not give details, according to the Times account cited by The Globe and Mail.
The account appeared in Politics Insider, the daily newsletter curated by Ian Bailey. Bloomberg also reported Carney's comments under the headline 'Carney Tells NYT He Looked at Extreme Tail Risk Of US ...' CBC carried a 1:50 video report on the remarks.
The interview follows earlier reporting that the Canadian Armed Forces had modelled a hypothetical American invasion and a potential Canadian response. That January report in The Globe and Mail cited two senior government officials.
The modelled Canadian response included tactics similar to those employed against Russia and later against U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan, according to that reporting.
Reaction on Parliament Hill on Sept. 24 came first from the New Democrats. Interim NDP Leader Don Davies told reporters in the foyer of the House of Commons that Canadians are united in the face of what he called an "unorthodox" external threat from the United States.
"This is a time that we all have to rally behind our Prime Minister," Davies said.
Davies said he would not second-guess what the prime minister chooses to reveal to Canadians. He added that the fact Carney would even have to consider a potential military threat from the United States shows the seriousness of the situation.
The broader context here is familiar in Ottawa. Contingency planning for low-probability, high-impact events is normal staff work for the Defence Department and the Privy Council Office, the office that supports the prime minister and cabinet. A prime minister speaking publicly about that work, even in general terms, is not normal.
In my view, that distinction explains the careful language on both sides of the foyer. Carney's wording puts the risk at the far edge of what is likely while confirming it crossed his desk. Davies, leading a third party with limited power over House procedure, offered solidarity without asking for the underlying assessment. The question for close followers of Parliament is whether any of this moves from language into formal steps: motions, committee studies, defence directives or procurement decisions.
The file already has a parliamentary paper trail. On Jan. 28, 2026, Davies wrote to House of Commons Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia to request an emergency debate. On Feb. 4, the NDP called for cancellation of all F-35 contracts, the fighter jets Canada is buying.
The Globe's Politics Insider previously ran an item titled "Expectations low for Carney's visit to White House," published Oct. 6, 2025.
