Argentina's Poverty Rate Climbs to 32.3% as Incomes Lag Prices
Argentina's poverty rate reached 32.3 percent in the first half of 2026 under President Javier Milei. Argentina's statistics agency, INDEC, released the data on Thursday, September 24, 2026, ending several months of improvement in the headline figure. Al Jazeera
The increase was 4.1 percentage points, up from 28.2 percent in the second half of 2025. Extreme poverty, which means lacking enough income for basic food needs, rose from 6.3 percent to 7.5 percent in the same period. Both figures come from INDEC's permanent household survey.
The math was straightforward. Per-person household income rose 11.5 percent in the first six months of 2026, while the basket of basic goods used to set the poverty line rose by nearly 20 percent, according to INDEC. Average pay, after adjusting for inflation, stayed below its December 2023 level. Unemployment rose to 7.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the highest since 2021.
Milei was elected in 2023 and took office in December 2023. Poverty jumped to nearly 53 percent in the first half of 2024 after a sharp peso devaluation and spending cuts. It then fell through 2025 to 28.2 percent in the second half, the lowest since early 2018. The latest reading gives back part of that fall. AP
The Catholic University of Argentina (UCA) estimates poverty could rise to 35 percent by the end of 2026. That would be well below the 2024 peak but materially above the late-2025 low.
The broader context here is unstable real incomes rather than a one-time break. Poverty fell through late 2025 when paycheck growth beat growth in the cost of the poverty basket. It rose again when basket costs sped up faster than household income. Because real wages were still below the December 2023 baseline, modest nominal gains did not cut poverty. Rising unemployment added a second path, as job losses and fewer hours lowered income per person.
Looking at what this means for policy, the next move depends on a few factors. The race between per-person income growth and basket cost growth will set the direction. Jobs will shape how it is shared. For an administration focused on disinflation, or bringing inflation down, and fiscal consolidation, or keeping public spending in line with revenue, the limit is clear in higher poverty, higher extreme poverty and unemployment at a five-year high. Whether the UCA projection holds will depend on income, price and job results in the second half.
