Alaska Governor Says 'Zero Chance' of U.S. Invasion as Carney Defends Planning

Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy told a business audience in Banff, Alta., there is "zero chance" of the United States invading Canada and said he was surprised Prime Minister Mark Carney had planned for that risk. The Globe and Mail

Dunleavy, a Republican, spoke alongside Gary Mar, president and CEO of the Canada West Foundation. He said U.S. military action against Canada is unthinkable to him and to the average American.

Carney had told The New York Times he had carefully examined the possibility of a U.S.-led military invasion of Canada. He described the chance as an "extreme tail risk," a term officials use for an outcome that is very unlikely but serious if it occurs.

Dunleavy endorsed Donald Trump for president in 2023. Trump said in 2025 he would be willing to use economic force to push Canada into political union with the United States.

The broader context here is the distinction Ottawa draws between contingency planning and public signalling. Like preparing for a flood that is unlikely in any given year, defence officials routinely plan for low-probability, high-impact events. That work does not mean they expect the event. Dunleavy was on the other track. He was offering face-to-face reassurance to a Canadian business audience.

Looking at what this means for managing the relationship, the venue matters. Banff placed the exchange in the West, not in Ottawa or Washington, and ran it through a subnational tie. Governors and premiers often carry cross-border files on trade, energy, infrastructure and emergency management when federal leaders cannot speak as freely. Dunleavy's remarks do not change federal jurisdiction over national defence and foreign affairs. They show how state-provincial contacts can steady commercial confidence when federal rhetoric sharpens.

In my view, readers should keep the two statements separate. Carney was describing risk method. Dunleavy was describing political intent. Both can hold at once. A prime minister can direct staff to model an extreme case while a neighbouring governor calls invasion politically inconceivable. The friction starts only when planning is read as prediction, or reassurance is read as guarantee. Neither reading is available on the facts as stated.