Left bloc in contention on latest 1News-Verian poll if National rules out Opportunity Party
Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori could form a government on the latest 1News-Verian numbers, if National keeps its refusal to work with the Opportunity Party.
The poll was published on 28 September. It records a lift in Green Party support, according to RNZ. On those party-vote shares, Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori are in contention to govern. That depends on who wins electorate seats, and on National leader Christopher Luxon holding his line against the Opportunity Party.
Verian modelled two ways a government could be formed. Both depend on how many electorates Te Pāti Māori wins. The results in the Māori electorates are treated as the factor that decides how list seats are shared out, and therefore the final numbers in Parliament.
In one version, Te Pāti Māori wins four Māori seats and Mariameno Kapa-Kingi's Te Tai Tokerau party wins one seat.
In both versions, the Opportunity Party would hold the balance of power. That is the term for when neither main grouping can reach 61 seats on its own, so a smaller party decides who can govern. Luxon has ruled out working with the Opportunity Party.
The poll was conducted from 23 to 27 September with 1004 eligible voters. The margin of error was 3.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval. In simple terms, results could shift by up to 3.4 points if the poll was repeated.
Thirteen percent of respondents did not know or refused to say who they would vote for. Undecided voters, non-voters and those who refused to answer are excluded from the party-support figures.
On preferred prime minister, Luxon was up two points. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick was up two points. ACT leader David Seymour was up two points. Labour leader Chris Hipkins was down one point. NZ First leader Winston Peters was steady.
The 8-11 August 1News-Verian poll, published on 13 August, put Labour at 30 percent, down two points from June, according to 1News. It put National at 29 percent, steady from the prior poll. Green support fell by one point. A separate report on the same August fieldwork put the Opportunity Party at 8 percent.
The June 1News-Verian poll put Labour and National support at a 30-year low, according to 1News. Both parties lost support, with Labour down five points, and the Opportunity Party was near the 5 percent threshold. The 19 April 1News-Verian poll projected 66 seats for the left bloc of Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, against 58 seats for the right bloc of National, NZ First and ACT. The Herald-Motu Research Poll of Polls on 8 September estimated Labour support at 27.9 percent.
Verian's poll for 1News has run for more than 25 years. It was named the 1News Verian Poll to reflect Verian's global brand name change.
The broader context here is how tight the paths to a majority are. With the Opportunity Party holding the balance in both Verian scenarios, a Luxon veto removes one option from the right and leaves the left with workable numbers on these shares. For Beehive watchers, the question is whether that veto holds through post-election talks, when leverage shifts to the holder of the balance.
Looking at what this means for seat numbers, the Māori electorate split matters. A four-one split between Te Pāti Māori and Kapa-Kingi's grouping brings a second Māori party into coalition talks. It affects overhang — when a party wins more electorates than its party vote allows — and wasted-vote assumptions that decide how a party-vote lead turns into 61 seats. With 13 percent undecided or refusing, and a 3.4-point margin, the party-vote order can still move before writs are returned.
