Micron Set to Pass Nvidia as Top Driver of S&P 500 Earnings Growth
Consensus expects S&P 500 earnings to grow 29.1% in the third quarter of 2026, with Micron Technology positioned to overtake Nvidia as the largest contributor to that growth. The estimate comes from FactSet data cited in a Sept. 27 MarketWatch analysis titled 'Micron could dethrone Nvidia and become the biggest driver of S&P 500 profit growth'.
The forecast
Stripping out Micron leaves S&P 500 profit growth at 24%, according to the same analysis. The 5.1 percentage-point gap is tied to a single company in a 500-company index. The S&P 500 is capitalization-weighted, so larger firms count more toward the total. Like an average pulled up by one high score, the headline depends heavily on one print.
The pattern would extend a shift from the second quarter. Micron overtook Nvidia as the top earnings-growth contributor for Q2 2026, according to a July 9 Lipper Alpha review. Leadership rotated between the two names.
The date to watch
Micron will report fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30, 2026, with a results call starting at 2:30 p.m. Mountain time to be webcast live, the company said in an Aug. 26 statement. Micron A Post Earnings Analyst Call is also scheduled for September 30, according to its events calendar. Micron The September 30 date is the next scheduled disclosure.
On August 27, Reuters reported Nvidia had forecast 70% revenue growth for the next year, a guide that lifted Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures and fueled gains across technology stocks. Reuters On September 14, Reuters reported Nvidia shares fell 3.4% while Micron shares dropped more than 5% on AI slowdown concerns. Reuters As of May 8, the S&P 500 had gained 8% in 2026 while the Nasdaq had rallied 13%. Reuters
The broader context here is how narrow that leverage has become. Excluding one name, growth runs 510 basis points below headline growth. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point. Small errors in that one forecast concentrate in the index total. A beat or miss on revenue, margin, or guidance transmits directly to the S&P 500 rate, while differences across the other 499 names matter less for the headline. For savers and borrowers who track index funds and pension values, that concentration shapes the number you see.
Looking toward September 30, the relevant variables are revision breadth and hurdle rate. Revision breadth is how many forecasts are moving up or down. Hurdle rate is how high expectations already are. Consensus already embeds Micron ahead of Nvidia, and market pricing reflects that order. Separating one quarter of contribution math from run-rate profitability is the task. It does not reset trailing operating leverage. It raises sensitivity to forward guidance.
