Gold Falls to Seven-Week Low as December Rate-Hike Bets Build
New York gold futures fell 3% to $4,189.40 on September 28, 2026, a seven-week low. Giulia Petroni reported the move for The Wall Street Journal under the headline 'Gold Falls to Seven-Week Low as Rate-Hike Bets Rise.'
What the prices show
A companion Journal print put the decline at 3% on the day. In afternoon trading in Europe on September 28, New York gold futures were down 3.1%. USA Today reported gold at $4,152.91 an ounce on September 28, down 3.08% on the day. The prints differ by timing and reference contract. The direction is uniform.
Futures are contracts to buy at a later date. Spot is the price for immediate delivery. A troy ounce is the standard weight used for precious metals.
How September played out
The September 28 drop came at the end of a down stretch into month-end. Gold was headed for a weekly loss of about 2.1% as of September 25, amid mounting rate-hike bets, according to Reuters. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $4,321.20 on September 25. That bounce did not hold.
On September 22, traders saw a 90% chance of a December Fed rate hike, and spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,336.21 an ounce. On September 7, spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,410.55 an ounce after strong U.S. jobs data boosted Fed rate-hike bets. On September 3, the move ran the other way. Spot gold rose 2.3% to $4,488.54 an ounce as traders scaled back September rate-hike expectations.
Other September reports listed front-month gold down 1.3% in New York at $4,310 per troy ounce. Silver fell 1.6% to $63.513 per troy ounce. Spot gold was 0.1% lower at $4,423.34 an ounce in early Asian trade.
Earlier reports showed spot gold down 3.3% to $3,973.79 in June reporting, below $4,000 an ounce at a more than seven-month low. COMEX gold for March delivery fell $54.60, or 1.06%, to settle at $5,091.50 per troy ounce in March reporting. Fresh U.S.-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and sparked fears of inflation. Those tensions then fed rate-hike fears that weighed on gold prices.
Goldman Sachs described uncertainty about U.S. interest rates and the Iran war as producing an "elongated pause" in gold's rally, in research published September 4. The Iran war generated volatility in energy markets and inflation expectations. The 2026 Iran War caused a rise in the price of oil with inflationary impact on U.S. inflation.
Oil, war and rates
The broader context here is a familiar chain for people tracking savings and borrowing costs. When policy is expected to stay higher for longer, real yields, meaning inflation-adjusted yields, rise and the dollar often firms. That raises the carry cost of holding gold, which pays no interest, and tightens financial conditions around it. Oil-led inflation complicates the trade. It can support gold as a hedge against rising prices in principle, while also pulling forward expectations for stricter policy that pressures gold in practice. The sequence in September points to a market trading the rate outlook and the dollar more than physical tightness.
In my view, the September price action shows why traders compare futures with spot and intraday levels with settlement closes. Futures sold harder than spot into the September 28 low. The settlement bounce on September 25 followed by a 3% futures drop suggests longs had little cushion under recent highs. The key variable to watch is the December hike probability and any shift in oil-driven inflation expectations. The verified prints include no fresh supply or demand data.
