Myanmar's military government now controls only 21 percent of the country's territory, according to CFR's Global Conflict Tracker (updated June 17, 2026), while ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) and resistance forces hold 42 percent. That reversal matters because it shows how much ground the Tatmadaw—Myanmar's military—has lost since it seized power on February 1, 2021 and triggered the country's civil war.

This shift did not happen overnight. Starting in 2023, armed groups began moving beyond their traditional territories in the Shan, Chin, Rakhine, and Kachin border regions, where they had largely stayed for decades. ACLED analysis from November 2024 documented how these organisations expanded into areas the military had long considered secure. The People's Defence Force (PDF)—the armed wing of the National Unity Government—has coordinated loosely with these ethnic groups, forming a coalition united against the regime but divided on what should come next.

The human toll of this expanding conflict was stark. A February 2025 UN report counted more than 1,800 civilians killed in 2024, the highest yearly death toll since the coup. Airstrikes on villages, artillery bombardment of populated areas, and systematic sexual violence accompanied the military's efforts to hold and retake territory. In January 2025, a broad coalition of governments formally condemned the junta's escalating violence and human rights violations.

The junta's behavior after a major earthquake in April 2025 revealed the gap between its words and actions. After announcing a ceasefire to allow humanitarian aid, the Tatmadaw continued airstrikes and artillery assaults within days — a pattern Reuters documented through conflict data. ASEAN leaders, meeting in May 2025, expressed deep concern and called for a longer ceasefire, though the bloc's need for consensus has historically limited its ability to pressure member states.

A Crisis on Multiple Fronts

The military conflict exists within a much broader collapse. The UN described Myanmar in January 2025 as facing a "polycrisis" — economic breakdown, armed conflict, climate-driven disasters, and worsening poverty all happening at once and making each other worse. The kyat (Myanmar's currency) has lost most of its value since 2021. Banking restrictions have cut off large parts of the population from the formal financial system. Food shortages are severe in war zones, and millions remain displaced.

These wider problems change how to interpret the territorial numbers. A military controlling only 21 percent of the country is not just losing battles; it is losing the ability to tax people, conscript soldiers, supply its forces, and govern. The Tatmadaw has responded by relying more heavily on airpower, which requires fewer troops on the ground but causes indiscriminate civilian harm—and pushes the population further away from the regime.

For the resistance groups, the reality is more complicated than territorial gains suggest. ACLED flagged a crucial division: some EAOs want ethnic self-determination and control over their regions, while the PDF nominally supports a federal democratic system for the entire country. These are different visions. As the junta weakens, these groups are already clashing over what should replace it and who controls resource-rich areas. Coalitions born from fighting a common enemy often splinter when that enemy begins to crumble.

The international response has been limited. Targeted sanctions on junta leaders and arms embargoes have not significantly reduced the Tatmadaw's fighting capacity, partly because major suppliers operate outside Western control. ASEAN's 2021 five-point plan for Myanmar has never been implemented. The UN Special Envoy has restricted access. Humanitarian aid depends on a junta that bombed villages even during its own declared ceasefire.

The territorial shift—from 21 percent to 42 percent—clarifies the direction the conflict is moving. Five years in, the military has failed to crush the insurgency, and the opposition has yet to develop the political and military unity needed to effectively govern contested territory. Myanmar is trapped in a prolonged state of disorder: destructive, costly in lives, and nowhere near resolution.