Trump Predicts Canada Trade Deal in Three to Four Weeks Amid Tariffs and Bans
U.S. President Donald Trump said Monday he expects to reach a trade agreement with Canada in the coming weeks. The Globe and Mail
He gave a timeline. Trump predicted Canada will agree to what he called a "fair deal" in three to four weeks.
That deadline is close. U.S. import bans on some Canadian alcoholic beverages, motorcycles and other products take effect at 12:01 a.m. on Sept. 29.
Trump linked the forecast to a domestic jobs announcement. He unveiled plans for a US$18-billion steel plant in Iowa that would create more than 1,700 long-term jobs.
The comments follow several rounds of tariffs, which work like tolls that raise the price of imported goods. Canada imposed new retaliatory tariffs, or return tariffs, on about $20 billion of U.S. exports, including steel, dairy and agricultural equipment, according to a White House fact sheet dated Sept. 8. White House Trump had earlier signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, a U.S. law that permits extra import taxes, to impose additional 50% tariffs on certain goods from Canada. White House
Those steps followed earlier tariff decisions in 2025. Trump implemented a 25% additional tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, alongside a 10% additional tariff on imports from China. He later announced adjustments to the Canada and Mexico tariffs to minimise disruption to the automotive industry.
Steel has followed its own track. Trump signed orders imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including Canada, starting on March 12. Reuters On Aug. 19, he delayed planned 50% tariffs on Canadian imports for three days, saying the two countries have reached a deal.
Rhetoric sharpened in September. On Sunday, September 13, Trump called Canada the "worst country to deal with" and said Ottawa was "dying to make a deal" with the United States. He had said on Sept. 12 that the United States has been "ripped off" for 50 years in remarks about a potential Canada trade deal. CTV News Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Sept. 3 that Canada is ready to sign a trade deal with the United States that benefits both countries. Al Jazeera
The broader context here for Ottawa is sequencing. The three-to-four-week prediction now runs parallel to import bans taking effect overnight and retaliatory tariffs already in place. For practitioners, the question is whether the timeline functions as negotiating pressure, as political signalling to domestic steel and manufacturing constituencies, or as both.
Looking at what this means for federal-provincial management, the product mix keeps several jurisdictions engaged at once. Steel, dairy, agricultural equipment, alcoholic beverages and motorcycles do not land in one region or under one regulatory regime. That diffusion complicates Ottawa's effort to hold a single national position while addressing distinct provincial exposures. It also gives Washington multiple points of leverage without needing to alter the central tariff statutes.
