Deutsche Bank Trims Netflix Target to $95, Still Sees 37% Upside
Deutsche Bank cut its price target on Netflix to $95 from $100 on September 29, 2026, while advising clients to buy the September selloff. CNBC The revised $95 target implied 37% upside, or possible gain, from Monday's close. CNBC Netflix shares were down around 24% year to date as of September 29. MarketWatch
The call came from analyst Bryan Kraft. Yahoo Finance Kraft said the stock traded at 18 times Deutsche Bank's 2027 earnings estimate. That multiple is a price-to-earnings ratio. It shows what investors pay for each dollar of expected profit. Yahoo Finance That compared with about 40 times forward earnings in June. Forward earnings means expected profit over the next 12 months. Yahoo Finance Despite the lower target, Deutsche Bank analysts still saw room for large gains. MarketWatch
Looking at positioning, the mechanics are worth unpacking. A lower target paired with a buy recommendation is common on Wall Street. It lowers the anchor while keeping room for gains. Here the cut was small, from $100 to $95. The implied return stayed large at 37%. That pattern points to a forecast tweak, not a change in the main view. The stock price did most of the adjusting. The target followed.
The broader context here is multiple compression and where it came from. The drop from about 40 times to 18 times mixes two things. One is price. The stock fell. The other is the yardstick. The bank moved from near-term expected profit to 2027 expected profit. That matters for savers and investors. A fall on the same forecast suggests weaker sentiment or higher rates. A fall tied to a later forecast puts the focus on longer-term cash and profit. It also puts more weight on how reliable that 2027 estimate is.
In my view, the risk now centers on that 2027 anchor. Bulls will see 18 times as a cleaner entry point after a 24% year-to-date fall and a weak September. Much of the excess has faded. If profit holds, the path to $95 offers a favorable trade. Skeptics will flip the same facts. They will ask if 40 times in June was simply too high, if profit forecasts could fall further, and if looking to 2027 hides nearer-term slowing. Both sides read the same repricing in different ways. That split often lasts until forecasts settle.
For trading desks and allocators, the practical question is sequencing. The 37% upside does not need a return to old multiples. It needs the market to accept the 2027 profit number and pay a steady price for it. If estimates hold, time helps the holder as 2027 gets closer. If estimates slip, the low multiple gives little support. September weakness is therefore a test. Heavy selling would confirm doubt. Steady prices would suggest most sellers have left.
Looking ahead, expect choppy trading around forecast changes. Target cuts that keep a buy rating often split the market. Some funds sell on the cut. Others buy on the upside math. Which group trades more in the next few days will shape the price. Patience counts more than precision here.
