Burnham Would Replace Triple Lock With Double Lock From 2030

Andy Burnham has said the state pension triple lock would become a double lock of inflation or 2.5% from 2030, with a longer-term link to keep it in line with earnings. The Spectator Australia reported the proposal on 30 September.

Reuters reported on 27 September that Burnham had pledged to offer social care reform at the next election. His plan links the pensions change to funding for a new national care service.

The Conservative Party chairman said the Conservatives would keep the triple lock unchanged, the BBC reported on 30 September. He described the plan to reform the triple lock to fund a new national care service as "robbing Peter to pay Paul", the BBC reported on 29 September.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said the plan to fund care by changing the triple lock is "already falling apart under scrutiny". City AM reported on 29 September that Reform UK and Conservative leaders had attacked Burnham's plan to drop the triple lock.

The Telegraph reported on 29 September that a senior Conservative MP had told a Westminster event the Conservatives should be the first party to drop the triple lock.

Reuters reported on 7 September that the triple lock guarantees the state pension rises each year by the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%. The BBC said it was introduced by the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition in 2011.

The Conservatives fought the 2024 general election with a pledge to protect pensioner incomes through tax as well as pensions. The party's 2024 manifesto proposed a Triple Lock Plus to cut tax for pensioners. Its costings document proposed a new age-related allowance for people at or above state pension age.

The BBC reported on 29 September that the IFS, the Institute for Fiscal Studies which analyses public spending, estimated the triple lock will add £16bn a year to state pension spending by 2026-27.

The broader context here is what this sets up for the next election. Burnham has paired a long-standing Labour ambition on care with a specific pensions mechanism and a start date well into the next parliament. The Conservatives have a clear attack line and a clear defence of the existing guarantee, but also an on-the-record voice urging early reform. That sits uneasily with the chairman's commitment to keep it unchanged. The questions now are delivery, costing and voter coalition: whether a double lock plus earnings link can fund care at scale, and which party pensioners trust on the guarantee.