Jim Bianco Turns Bullish on Bonds for First Time Since 2020
Jim Bianco turned bullish on U.S. Treasury bonds on September 28, 2026. It was his first bullish stance since 2020, according to Bloomberg. He said rising yields, the annual return new buyers lock in, had made entry more attractive.
By his account, yields had risen enough to compensate for duration risk, the price swings longer-term bonds suffer when rates move. It was a call about entry timing, not a new forecast for growth, inflation or policy.
The broader context here is how bond investors separate price from value. A bearish view can hold through a long selloff and then flip without any economic forecast changing. Starting yield resets expected return. It widens the cushion against further price falls. It improves carry, the income from holding, and roll-down, the gain as a bond nears maturity. That math feeds through to savings rates and borrowing costs.
In my view, the length of the prior bearish stance is why trading desks take notice. Valuation flips are easy for computer-driven and human managers alike to read. They translate directly into breakeven analysis, how far yields can rise before the trade loses money. They do not require agreement on growth, inflation or the policy path.
Looking at what this means for positioning, the question is tenor and instrument. Bullish can mean outright duration, curve exposure, or favoring Treasuries over foreign bonds and credit. Each carries different risk, price sensitivity and funding cost. A yield-led case leans toward outright duration. It prioritizes income per unit of volatility. Desks will parse whether that means intermediates, where income per risk is often cleanest, or the long end, where convexity helps but supply and liquidity dominate.
In my view, the risk is mistaking entry level for trend. Higher yield improves forward return math. It does not cap yields. Momentum, positioning squeezes and large real-money flows can still push prices through fair value. Reversals after long bearish runs draw attention because they hint the bearish crowd is capitulating. They work best with a catalyst that reprices terminal rates or term premium, the extra pay for holding longer bonds. Without that, this functions as a tactical add, not a regime call.
Looking at what this means for risk management, the discipline is sizing. Duration scales losses as fast as gains, and rate volatility means breakevens can be tested quickly. That is why level-based buys are often staged rather than full size at once. Carry accrues over time, so patience matters.
