UK-France 'One In, One Out' Returns Pilot to Expire on 1 October
The UK-France "one in, one out" returns arrangement for small-boat arrivals is expected to expire on Thursday 1 October, according to UK government sources cited by The Guardian.
Officials in London describe negotiations as stalled. Paris is pushing for a Europe-wide arrangement instead of a bilateral deal between just the two countries, and has resisted raising the number of people to be swapped. Home Office staff and French counterparts are still meeting in Paris to agree how to close the pilot. Removal flights for people already detained under the scheme will continue for a short time and are expected to end within weeks.
The scheme was announced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Emmanuel Macron in July 2025. The treaty behind it came into force on 6 August, after London said on 4 August 2025 that implementation would start within days, according to Reuters. The first flights left in September 2025. Britain announced on 18 September 2025 that the first migrant had been returned to France under the agreement. On 23 September 2025, the UK lost an appeal over a block on the removal of an asylum seeker under the deal.
The system worked like a paired exchange. The UK could detain and quickly remove people who arrived illegally by small boat, as described in the UK government notice of the first return. For each arrival sent back to France, the UK agreed to admit one other person, described as an asylum seeker with links to the UK who was in France.
More than 1,400 people who arrived in the UK by small boat have been sent back to France under the deal, and a matching number have been flown the other way. The pilot was first due to expire in April. In May 2026 the two sides agreed to extend it to 1 October to cover the expected summer rise in crossing attempts. France views the text signed in August 2025 as a time-limited pilot not meant to run past 1 October 2026, a position attributed to Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez.
The cost and results are still disputed. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood told MPs the deal cost about £56,000 for each person sent back to France. Between January and 27 September, 19,135 people crossed the Channel by small boat from France, down 42% on the same period last year. That fall came after a sharp rise the year before. Small-boat arrivals in the year ending September 2025 totalled 45,659, 53% more than in the year ending September 2024, according to Home Office statistics. Returns of small-boat arrivals in the year ending December 2025 were the highest in any 12-month period since recording began in 2018. Separately, the UK agreed to pay France £16.2 million to patrol beaches, as reported by the BBC.
The broader context here is a long-running tension in joint migration control. London wanted a deterrent through fast, enforceable returns. Paris wanted sharing of responsibility beyond the Channel coast and leverage for a wider EU framework. Neither aim was fully settled inside a pilot with limited numbers.
Looking at what this means for policymakers, three questions carry weight. First, whether the 42% fall this year reflects deterrence, weather and enforcement factors, or a shift to other routes. Second, whether an EU-wide returns or asylum processing deal can be negotiated on a timetable that works for either government. Third, how detention and removal capacity will be used once the legal basis for this exchange ends. The answers will shape Channel policy after 1 October more than the final winding-down flights.
