Victoria Police closed its investigation into assault allegations made by Liberal MP Moira Deeming against former opposition leader Matthew Guy on 26 June 2026, finding no offence had been committed. Footage of the incident surfaced during the inquiry, according to the Herald Sun.

Deeming had alleged Guy placed her in a headlock at a community event. Guy denied the claim. Police confirmed they were investigating after her complaint, per The Guardian and ABC News. Once footage became available, police reached a determination quickly. No charges were laid.

Guy signalled publicly that he was considering legal action against Deeming while the police review was still underway. Whether that prospect shifts now that the investigation has closed in his favour remains uncertain.

The episode sits within a longer pattern of tension between the two figures in Victoria's Liberal Party. Deeming holds socially conservative positions that have put her at odds with successive party leaderships. Guy expelled her from the Liberal parliamentary party room in 2023 over her attendance at a rally that drew neo-Nazi demonstrators — a decision she contested. She was eventually reinstated. Guy stepped down as opposition leader after the 2022 state election defeat and remains a significant, if contested, figure within the party's factional politics.

A formal assault complaint between sitting parliamentarians of the same party is uncommon. The fact that it went to Victoria Police rather than being resolved through internal party channels signals the depth of the personal breakdown between them. The emergence of footage as decisive evidence is also significant — without it, competing accounts would likely have left the investigation unresolved.

For Guy, the no-offence determination removes his most direct legal risk. The reputational effect is harder to measure. Allegations of physical conduct between colleagues, once public, retain a weight regardless of how they are resolved. His stated consideration of legal action gives him another avenue, though defamation claims in this context carry their own procedural and political complications.

For Deeming, the result places her complaint on the record as unsubstantiated. Within a party already fractured by competing factions, that outcome will be used by her opponents. How it affects her standing with her electorate — she holds the Western Metropolitan Region upper house seat — will depend on how the broader communities supporting her on gender and parental rights issues process the story. Such groups are generally less swayed by internal party disputes.

The Victorian Liberals approach the next state election cycle bearing structural and personal wounds. The tension between Deeming and Guy reflects a deeper divide between the party's moderate and conservative wings — one that has resisted resolution across multiple leadership changes. This incident will not ease that underlying fracture.