Southeast Australia Faces Days of Heavy Rain and Storms
Widespread rain and thunderstorms are forecast to drench south-eastern Australia from Thursday, with the heaviest falls expected across Victoria. The Guardian
The system is expected to last through Friday into Saturday and extend into New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory. Totals will vary sharply by location. The risk extends offshore.
The Bureau of Meteorology said a trough — an extended line of low air pressure — moving east across South Australia would meet a low pressure system moving through the Great Australian Bight on Thursday. The two systems are expected to combine into a slow-moving low over Victoria, eastern South Australia and New South Wales, bringing widespread storms and heavy rain.
Senior Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Dean Narramore said most of Victoria could expect 25-50mm of rain over the coming days. Melbourne was forecast to receive 30 to 50mm. Parts of Gippsland and the central, eastern and Otway ranges could receive more than 100mm, with some areas up to 150mm.
Flood watches — alerts that flooding is possible — were in place for parts of Gippsland, north-east and central Victoria. A separate Bureau flood watch covered Victoria's north-east and northern country ahead of forecast heavy rainfall this week. The Bureau expected thunderstorms and potential damaging winds in coastal areas of Victoria on Friday and Saturday.
For the Melbourne area, the Bureau forecast cloudy conditions with a very high chance of rain and a chance of a thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. Its site forecast listed a minimum of 15°C and maximum of 23°C with possible rainfall of 15 to 40 mm and a 100% chance of rain. North to northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 km/h shifting south to southeasterly of 15 to 20 km/h in the early afternoon were forecast. Bureau of Meteorology
The Bureau's Central Victoria Coastal Waters Forecast listed cloudy weather with a 90% chance of rain and a chance of a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and evening on Saturday 3 October. It listed southeasterly winds of 20 to 30 knots around Saturday 3 October. Bureau of Meteorology
Canberra and Sydney were forecast to receive rain and storms on Saturday as the weather system moved across New South Wales. Weatherzone's Anthony Sharwood said the entire Sydney basin would likely be impacted by showers and storms, with some suburbs potentially accumulating around 50mm.
The Bureau's outlook for October to December shows rainfall is likely to be above average across much of the west and central regions. Bureau of Meteorology
The broader context here is that the shape of this event matters as much as the totals. A slow-moving low spreads exposure over several days rather than concentrating it in a single burst, which extends the window for saturated catchments, renewed river rises and overlapping hazards. A footprint that covers Victoria first and then reaches into southern New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory complicates sequencing, with metropolitan, regional and coastal risks unfolding on slightly different timelines. For specialists watching flood watches, coastal wind potential and thunderstorm activity together, coordination across those timelines will be central to how the next few days are managed.
