Mystery Creek debate sets out party lines on forestry, ETS and tax
About 350 farmers attended a rural issues debate at Mystery Creek near Hamilton on Wednesday, a month out from the election.
The debate was organised by Beef and Lamb New Zealand, DairyNZ and Federated Farmers as a pitch for the rural vote. National, Labour, ACT, New Zealand First and the Greens were on stage. Te Pāti Māori and the Opportunities Party were not, according to RNZ.
Most of the debate centred on carbon farming and full farm-to-forest conversions, where whole farms are planted in trees for carbon income. The system behind it is the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), New Zealand's carbon market. Forest owners earn units for storing carbon, which polluters buy to offset their emissions.
National's Todd McClay said the Government had improved the settings to protect productive farmland while respecting property rights. He claimed this was the first full year with no sales of valuable farmland for conversion to trees.
Labour agriculture spokesperson Jo Luxton said Labour would develop new rules to limit full farm-to-forest conversions. She said Labour would order an urgent review of the ETS to make planting pines for carbon offsetting less attractive.
Greens agriculture spokesperson Steve Abel said the Greens would price farm emissions under the ETS if elected, and take forestry out of the ETS entirely.
On the state of the market, ETS auctions have sold no carbon units since December 2024, as of last month's auction. The coalition Government removed agriculture from the ETS and dropped He Waka Eke Noa, the industry plan for a separate farm emissions price.
On tax the parties lined up. National, Labour and ACT each promised no new taxes for farmers. Luxton confirmed farms would not face a capital gains tax.
The agenda ran wider than carbon and tax. Organisers said it covered climate change, nitrogen fertiliser, freshwater, tax and the future of rural New Zealand, according to the NZ Herald. A separate account listed taxes, freshwater rules, the Gene Technology Bill, the Paris Agreement, rural connectivity and the ETS, according to Farmers Weekly.
No detailed freshwater targets or nitrogen settings were reported from the stage. National defended its regulatory reset. Labour promised new limits and an ETS review. The Greens proposed farm emissions in, forestry out.
The broader context here is familiar to anyone who follows primary industries. Farm-to-forest rules and ETS settings have become stand-ins for larger arguments over land use, the carbon price and who pays to cut emissions. A long run of failed auctions makes it harder for any plan that relies on ETS price signals, and puts exemptions under closer scrutiny.
What this could mean after the election is a narrow path. The tax pledges close off room to move, including a farm capital gains tax Labour had previously left open. On emissions, keeping farming outside the ETS, pricing it inside, and using a separate vehicle like He Waka Eke Noa do not sit together easily. The next Government will have to choose between direct controls on land-use change, reworking ETS incentives for exotic forestry, or attempting both.
For officials working through the detail, the questions are practical. What land-class thresholds and consent tests would enforce a farm-to-forest limit. What review terms would change pine-planting economics without stranding existing investments. How freshwater rules fit with land-use change already under way. Wednesday did not settle those details. It showed where each party would start.
