Can the Greens Replace Labor? Testing Shoebridge's Big Call

Barrie Cassidy and Sean Kelly have put Greens leader David Shoebridge's claim to the test: that the Greens can replace Labor. The Guardian

Kelly sat in for Tony Barry alongside Cassidy this time. The conversation went out as both audio and video for 3 October 2026, listed as 2 October 2026 GMT. The audio edition is called "Back to Back Barries: Can the Greens beat Labor? – podcast". The video edition is called "Can the Greens beat Labor? – Back to Back Barries podcast". The Guardian Daniel Semo is credited as producer. The Guardian describes the series as examining the strategies behind the week's politics. The Guardian

The episode starts with the leadership vote. Shoebridge beat two women to become Greens leader in a contested ballot. That is uncommon. Most leadership changes are stitched up before the party room meets, so a ballot means there was a genuine contest over organisation and factions.

Cassidy and Kelly then focus on Shoebridge's direction and the replace-Labor argument. That is the central question. They treat it as strategy, not personalities. What would replacement take in practice, which voters would have to switch, and how would the Greens win them.

They also cover what the prime minister said at George Megalogenis' Melbourne book launch. They go through his remarks for clues on how Labor reads the contest.

The other topic is polling for the coming Victorian election. The episode discusses the polls. It makes no further claims about them.

The broader context here is why this Labor-Greens fight keeps coming back. Both chase votes in the same inner metropolitan seats, but their jobs differ. Labor must hold government and keep a national primary vote up. The Greens must turn clustered support into seats and make a protest vote stick. A claim to replace, not just pressure, Labor changes the contest. It becomes a direct fight for voters, volunteers and legitimacy, not just leverage over legislation.

In my view, the episode is useful for what it puts together, not for settling the big question. No podcast settles replacement theory. Put a leadership ballot next to a prime ministerial signal at a cultural event and polling in a live state market, and you get how Canberra judges a minor-party threat. It looks at leader authority, major-party response and numbers on the ground, not ideology in the abstract. Shoebridge has put the ambition plainly. Labor has answered in its chosen forum. Victoria is the early testing ground.

Looking at what this means for the next phase, listen to the language both sides use. Replacement talk sets a test for the Greens. Every preference deal, every Senate negotiation, every call on where to spend campaign money will be measured against it. It also corners Labor. Ignore the claim and you look complacent. Hit it too hard and you build it up. The names change but that bind does not. Cassidy and Kelly have seen it before. They handle the claim with scepticism and seriousness, which is more than you get from most partisan takes.