West Coast-Tasman: open race in a vast electorate
West Coast-Tasman will elect a new MP in November. National's Maureen Pugh is retiring, and Labour's Damien O'Connor is not standing in the seat after 33 years as an MP.
The seat covers more than 32,000 sq km and is New Zealand's second-largest electorate by land area. It runs almost the full length of the South Island's West Coast, up to Farewell Spit and across Tasman Bay, and includes more than half of New Zealand's national parks, according to RNZ.
The largest towns are Motueka, Westport and Greymouth. Most enrolled voters live in Tasman.
The seat was created for the 1996 election. O'Connor has held it for most of that time, with two breaks — National's Chris Auchinvole in the 2008 term, and Pugh in the most recent term. The West Coast has traditionally been a Labour stronghold, according to RNZ.
Recent results have been volatile. In 2020, O'Connor beat Pugh by 6,208 votes. In 2023, Pugh received 13,317 votes and beat O'Connor by 1,017 votes. National won the party vote — the separate vote for a party, not the local candidate — by 4,072. Labour needs a 2.5 percentage-point swing, or shift in vote share, to win the seat back in November.
Both major parties have selected newcomers. National is running Katie Milne, a dairy farmer and former Federated Farmers president. Labour is standing Rory Paterson, a North Canterbury-based teacher.
The rest of the field is crowded. Former Buller Mayor Jamie Cleine is running for NZ First. Foodtruck owner Andrew Beaumont is standing for the Greens. Murchison Four Square owner Janelle Hocking is standing for ACT. Greymouth business owner Cindie Uddstrom is standing for the Opportunity Party. Riwaka local and software developer Sara Dyatlova-Murphy is representing the Alliance Party. Lawyer Sue Grey is running for the NZ Outdoors and Freedom Party.
Large fields are not new here. At the 2020 general election, West Coast-Tasman had 12 candidates, tied with Northland for the most candidates in any electorate, according to the Electoral Commission. The Commission also publishes current enrolment by general electorate and provides an address search for voters to check their electorate for the 2026 General Election.
The broader context here is an open-seat marginal with no sitting MP to measure against. A 1,017-vote electorate margin and a 4,072-vote party vote gap point in different directions for where parties put staff and money. National will want to test whether 2023 was support for Pugh herself or a longer shift in Tasman. Labour will want to test whether Paterson, based outside the electorate, can rebuild its Coast vote while gaining ground in Tasman. For NZ First, ACT and the Greens, the question is whether a strong local candidate can lift the local party vote without splitting the contest. On paper, a 2.5-point swing is gettable. In a seat this large, with this many options on the ballot, organisation will matter as much as message.
