Winter 2026 Gas: Why the November-December Price Gap Matters More Than Either Price
November 2026 U.S. natural gas was quoted at 3.087, up 0.014 (+0.46%), while December 2026 traded at 3.734, up 0.021 (+0.57%). Henry Hub, the Louisiana hub that sets the U.S. benchmark price, trades on CME Globex as NGX26 for November and NGZ26 for December. Those two prices leave a November-December spread, or gap, of 0.647 CME Futures Quotes.
CME's official settlement prices, the fixed daily closing values used to value positions, were lower. The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Settlements page lists NOV 26 at 3.01600, 3.02100, 2.94700 and 2.95000, and DEC 26 at 3.34500, 3.35400, 3.28300 and 3.28500 CME Settlements. Live quotes and settlements differ because they are taken at different times and by different methods.
Two other CME pages show different latest prices for the same November contract. The Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Calendar page lists NGX26 with Last 2.995, Change -0.031 (-1.02%) and Volume 1,430, last updated 30 Sep 2026. The Natural Gas Option (American) Quotes page lists NGX26 with Last 3.039, Change +0.072 (+2.43%) and Volume 178,518 CME Calendar. A futures quote, a calendar-screen price and an options-screen price are measured in different ways, so they are not directly comparable, and trading activity was very different between the two screens.
On weather, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center puts out 6-10 Day outlooks daily between 3pm and 4pm Eastern Time. Its 8 to 14 Day Outlook for October 12 to 18, 2026 was updated on Oct 4, 2026. The 6-10 and 8-14 Day discussion favors above-normal temperatures for southeastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska NOAA Discussion. The Week 3-4 Outlook leans toward above-normal temperatures over the CONUS, the lower 48 states, with higher odds of above-normal temperatures across much of Alaska.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration in its October 6, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast U.S. working natural gas inventories, the usable gas in storage, will total 3,969 billion cubic feet EIA STEO. The current date for this pricing stack is Oct. 5, 2026 GMT, so the NOAA 8-14 day window and the EIA outlook sit ahead of the last calendar timestamp of Sept. 30.
The broader context here is curve shape versus quote level. For a trading desk, and for what households may later pay for heat, the 0.647 gap from November to December counts more than either price alone. That upward slope into winter, called contango, covers the cost of carrying gas and the value of being able to deliver during the peak heating month rather than the shoulder month before it. Even though settlements are lower in outright terms, meaning single-month prices, December still holds a premium, so the shape holds while day-to-day trading moves the levels.
In my view, the more useful tension is between expected storage and the tilt in temperatures. A 3,969 Bcf stockpile sets the cushion going into withdrawal season, when winter use draws storage down. If above-normal temperatures across the CONUS and Alaska hold, that would slow the draw. Options activity near 178,500 contracts versus calendar volume of 1,430 shows where hedging and bets on price swings are clustered. Watch settlement convergence and any change to the storage path for confirmation.
