Quebec election: 127 seats, PQ lead, and the road to 64

Voters in Quebec's 127 ridings are electing a new provincial government on Oct. 5.

Polls are open from 9:30 a.m. to 8 p.m., with first preliminary results expected between 8:30 p.m. and 9 p.m. Quebec uses a fixed-date rule that sets a provincial election for the first Monday in October in the fourth year. Oct. 5, 2026, is a Monday.

The vote is on a new electoral map. The National Assembly has grown from 125 to 127 seats, with two new divisions contested for the first time CBC. The bar for a majority, enough seats to pass laws without help from other parties, is 64 seats. That is one more than under the old map The Globe and Mail.

At dissolution, when the legislature is formally closed to begin the campaign, the Coalition Avenir Québec held 79 seats after two straight majority governments. The Liberals held 18, Québec solidaire held 11 and the Parti Québécois held seven. Nine members sat as Independents and one sat as a Conservative. The campaign lasted 40 days.

Five parties frame the choice. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the Parti Québécois, Christine Fréchette leads the Coalition Avenir Québec, Charles Milliard leads the Liberals, Ruba Ghazal is co-spokesperson for Québec solidaire, and Éric Duhaime leads the Conservatives.

Pre-election polls put the Parti Québécois in front. The party entered election day as the front-runner, with its leader pressing openly for a majority government CBC. Late-campaign support stood at 29 per cent for the Parti Québécois, 25 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the Conservatives Reuters. Earlier polling also had the sovereigntists, supporters of Quebec independence, favoured to win and likely to form the next government.

That lead sits with a more divided public on the national question. Campaign polls indicated most Quebecers did not favour separation CBC. St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold a sovereignty referendum, a province-wide vote on leaving Canada, if his party forms government, but not before U.S. President Donald Trump leaves the White House in 2029.

The broader context here is a legislature where where votes land will matter as much as vote share. A 29-25-20 split leaves several paths to 64, including a minority assembly in which no party holds a majority. Nine departing Independents and redrawn boundaries add uncertainty to regional counts. Early returns to watch are the CAQ's ability to hold its suburban and regional base from 79 seats, Liberal strength in Montreal-area federalist ridings, and whether Conservative support turns into seats beyond its single seat at dissolution.

Looking at what this means for federal-provincial relations, the referendum timing is central. A PQ government with a 2029 horizon would create a multi-year window for Ottawa and Quebec City to manage jurisdiction, fiscal files and constitutional debate without an immediate campaign. A minority outcome would limit any government's ability to move quickly on identity, language or autonomy files that need steady majority support. The count after 8 p.m. will show which legislature Quebec has elected.