National Hits Six-Year Low as Greens Rise and Opportunity Holds the Balance
National has fallen to 25.9 percent support in the RNZ-Reid Research poll published on 5 October, down 3.2 points since August. It is the party's weakest result since the 2020 election. The poll was released about a month out from voting day.
Labour is on 30.8 percent, down 1.4 points, according to the poll. That is its third consecutive decline in the series. Together the two major parties hold 56.7 percent support, down from 61.3 percent in August and 64.9 percent at the 2023 election.
The movement has gone to the minors. The Green Party is on 14.8 percent, up 4.6 points. ACT is on 9.0 percent, up 1.3 points. New Zealand First is on 10.6 percent, down 1.3 points. Te Pāti Māori is on 2.0 percent, down 1.0 point. The Opportunity Party is on 5.5 percent, up 0.2 points. Under MMP, the proportional system New Zealand uses, that keeps Opportunity above the 5 percent party-vote threshold needed to enter Parliament, for a second poll in a row RNZ.
Translated to seats in a 120-seat Parliament, the poll projects National would return 32 MPs, New Zealand First 13 and ACT 11. That totals 56 seats, five short of the 61 needed for a majority. Labour would have 37 MPs, the Greens 18 and Te Pāti Māori two, totalling 57 seats.
Opportunity's seven projected MPs decide it. With Opportunity, the existing coalition of National, ACT and New Zealand First reaches 63 seats. With Opportunity, the Labour-Greens-Te Pāti Māori grouping reaches 64 seats.
On preferred prime minister, Chris Hipkins is on 21.9 percent, up 0.6 points. Christopher Luxon is on 17.1 percent, down 2.8 points. Winston Peters is third on 11.2 percent. Green co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick is on 8.7 percent, up 1.3 points. Another 14.4 percent selected no preferred prime minister or said they did not know. Separately, 53.3 percent of respondents rate Luxon's personal performance as prime minister poorly.
Reid Research surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online between 24 September and 1 October, using quota sampling and weighting by age and gender. It was the first poll released during the 2026 election campaign. It landed hours before the two major party leaders were due to meet in TVNZ's debate. Luxon and Hipkins were scheduled to face off on Tuesday evening RNZ. National campaign chair Simeon Brown responded that the election will be a tight one.
The broader context here will be familiar to Press Gallery watchers. A combined major-party vote of 56.7 percent leaves the system fragmented. The incumbent arrangement cannot return on its current numbers, and the alternative grouping cannot govern without adding a fourth partner. That gives a party polling just above threshold disproportionate negotiating weight, provided it stays there.
Looking at what this means for the campaign, threshold survival is now the central tactical question. Opportunity at 5.5 percent has repeated the result, which matters because a tenth of a point above or below five percent determines seven seats. The Te Pāti Māori party vote at 2.0 percent points the other way, with its two projected seats resting on electorates rather than the party vote. National is polling at 25.9 percent party vote against 17.1 percent preferred prime minister for Luxon and a 53.3 percent poor performance rating. Labour is polling ahead of National but still falling, and Hipkins at 21.9 percent leads Luxon without breaking clear of the undecideds. The 14.4 percent with no preferred prime minister is large enough to shift the debate-phase polls.
That is why Tuesday mattered. A first leaders' debate rarely settles an election, but it can arrest a trend. Luxon went in needing to stabilise a vote that has hit a six-year low. Hipkins went in leading on both party vote and preferred prime minister yet still short of a governing bloc. For Peters, Seymour and Swarbrick, the numbers confirm leverage. For Opportunity, they confirm something rarer: a genuine balance-of-power position a month out.
