Polls narrow National's path to power ahead of first leaders' debate

National's path to power narrowed in a new campaign poll published on 6 October, hours before Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins met in TVNZ's first leaders' debate.

RNZ published the result in live coverage headlined "Election 2026 live: National's path to power narrows in new poll, Luxon to face Hipkins in first leaders' debate". The live blog carried the poll result and the build-up to the Tuesday evening debate between the two major party leaders.

The RNZ-Reid Research poll put Labour on 30.8 percent and National on 25.9 percent, according to BusinessDesk. It put the Opportunity Party on 5.5 percent, in the kingmaker position. That is the party whose support could decide who can form a government under MMP, the proportional voting system. New Zealand First was on 10.6 percent, down 1.3 percent.

A separate 1News poll published on 6 October pointed in the same direction. It showed Opportunity still in the kingmaker seat, according to 1News. The same poll showed the Greens in a strong position to play a significant role in the next government.

National's campaign chair Simeon Brown said the election will be a tight one.

Luxon and Hipkins were scheduled to go head-to-head at 7pm on Tuesday 6 October. The debate was to run for 90 minutes in front of a live studio audience. It was to be moderated by Jack Tame and screened live on TVNZ 1, TVNZ+ and 1News, according to 1News.

The general election is scheduled for 7 November. Luxon has turned down TVNZ's second leaders' debate, which was scheduled for two days before polling day.

Ahead of the 6 October debate, Hipkins said voters would see "a prime minister in waiting".

The broader context here is the arithmetic. Two polls on the same day have Opportunity holding the balance of power, with the Greens also positioned for influence after the election. For National, the figures leave little margin for error. For Labour, being ahead is not enough to govern alone. That puts unusual weight on a first debate a month out from polling day, when leaders normally seek to set terms rather than close them. Turning down the second debate concentrates attention on that single 90-minute exchange.