Four Weeks to the Midterms: Early Voting Is Underway and 50 House Races Are Competitive

WASHINGTON — Four weeks remained until the Nov. 3 midterm elections as of Oct. 6, with early voting already underway across the country, according to NPR.

NPR published "With 4 weeks to go, a look at where November's big races stand" at 6:53 a.m. ET on Oct. 6. It was reported by Domenico Montanaro and Leila Fadel and aired on Morning Edition, according to NPR.

In-person voting began on a Friday that started the final six weeks of voting, the Associated Press reported on Sept. 18. By Oct. 1, CNN was tracking early voting in the midterm election. On Oct. 5, USA Today reported that early voting was starting in several states with less than a month to go. The Oct. 6 NPR assessment said voting was already underway.

In the House, about 50 of the 435 races were expected to be competitive — meaning either party could win them — on the Nov. 3 ballot, Reuters reported on Sept. 7. Those are the districts both parties are contesting in the closing weeks. In the Senate, updated polling for the 2026 races is published by the New York Times. Reuters reported on Oct. 1 that Kentucky Democrats described the Senate race in Kentucky as a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to flip a Senate seat in a Republican stronghold."

The broader context here is timing. Once ballots are out in several states, campaigns must both persuade undecided voters and turn out supporters. Staff time, ads and voter contact are split between those two jobs. Polls taken after voting starts measure opinion while ballots are already being returned.

Looking at what this means for the next four weeks, staff will decide where to put money and people without full information. That means ranking House districts by chance of winning and cost, like triage. The Senate map is smaller, so one state can take a large share of national spending. Public polls are a starting point, but campaigns compare them with their own turnout data and early returns.

In my view, a four-weeks-out snapshot brings discipline. It focuses attention on where ballots are already being cast, which House districts are still in play, and where Senate polls show movement. The rest is execution: mail, field work, ads and ballot chase through Nov. 3.