EU Proposes 15-Year Probation for New Member States

Any future EU member state would face a 15-year probation period under plans published on 6 October 2026 by Marta Kos, the EU commissioner for enlargement. The Guardian

Kos outlined the proposals in an interview with the Guardian and other European newspapers. The safeguard would have to be agreed by EU member states before it could take effect. Kos framed the idea bluntly as "No more Viktor Orbán." She called for quicker tools than Article 7 alone if newcomers break rule-of-law, democracy or values rules.

During probation, a new member could be stripped of voting rights or EU funds for breaching democratic values or loyalty to the EU, the duty known as sincere cooperation. The threshold for punishment would be lower than under Article 7. Think of it like a trial period at a job, with closer checks at the start.

Article 7 allows removal of a member state's voting rights for a "serious and persistent breach" of democratic values but has never been triggered. The plan would apply to Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine. The EU has 27 members, and all 27 must agree unanimously to admit newcomers. That unanimity rule already shapes accession politics. In 2023, Viktor Orbán chose not to veto a decision to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. Hungary is now blocking Ukraine from advancing in that process. Reuters

The broader context here is enforcement without expulsion. The EU has no mechanism to remove a member. It has a high-bar rule to suspend voting rights and separate budget tools. A time-bound probation would mean full membership with conditional privileges, with a clear incentive for candidates to stay in line and an earlier, lower bar for current members worried about another long internal standoff.

Looking at what this means for negotiations, the unanimity requirement cuts both ways. Admission needs all 27 to agree. So does the probation regime. Candidates would need to weigh the risk of second-class treatment against the value of entry. Current members would need to agree what a breach means in practice, who assesses it, and how penalties lift. The proposal does not settle those questions. It sets the direction Kos wants: admit, but retain leverage long after accession treaties are signed.