The purple vote at 56.7 percent: what the latest polls show
National and Labour together have 56.7 percent of the party vote in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, according to RNZ.
RNZ calls that combined National (blue) and Labour (red) share the 'purple vote'. It explained the term in "Explainer: What is the 'purple vote' and why is it shrinking?", published on 6 October 2026 and listed in its Election 2026 news hub. RNZ
Where the numbers have moved
In New Zealand's MMP system the party vote decides each party's share of seats in the House. It works like a proportional share. In 2005, Labour and National took 80.2 percent of that vote between them. That share slipped to 72.17 percent by 2014. It then rose to 81.3 percent in 2017.
The 2023 result broke the pattern. The purple vote fell to 64.97 percent. RNZ reported that was the lowest combined major-party share since 1996, when National and Labour took 62 percent.
Current polling points lower still. RNZ reported the 56.7 percent combined figure was down from 61.3 percent in its August poll and 64.9 percent at the 2023 election. Reid Research polling back to 2021 points to a steady downward path, according to RNZ.
How the polls compare
The 1News-Verian poll cited by RNZ tells a similar story on the majors. It had National at 29 percent and Labour at 28 percent. The two polls differed on undecideds. The 1News-Verian poll recorded 11 percent undecided voters, compared with 6 percent undecided in the RNZ-Reid Research poll. RNZ
Within that combined figure, National was at 25.9 percent in the RNZ-Reid Research poll. That was its weakest polling result since the 2020 election, according to Reuters reporting of the poll. Reuters
How the figures were put together
Reid Research surveyed 1,000 eligible voters online between 24 September and 1 October 2026. It used quota sampling and weighting by age and gender to match the voting population, RNZ reported.
For readers working with the numbers, the Electoral Commission defines voter turnout as the percentage of registered voters who actually voted. In 2023, turnout for enrolled voters aged 18 to 24 was 74.2 percent, higher than turnout for voters aged 25 to 44, the Commission reported. Its current enrolment statistics, as at 30 September 2026, use estimated population statistics as at 30 June 2025 (provisional) based on 2023 census data.
The broader context here is what a mid-50s purple vote would mean under MMP. A combined major-party share in that range leaves more than four in every ten party votes elsewhere. That arithmetic widens the field for smaller parties in seat allocation and in post-election talks. It also changes how the two majors campaign. They must defend their flanks as well as contest the centre.
In my view, the history matters for perspective. The 2017 rebound to 81.3 percent is a reminder that concentration can return quickly. The drop to 64.97 percent in 2023 and then to the mid-50s in current polling is a reminder that it can also unwind. People who negotiate coalitions will read the trend, not just the latest number. They will test whether the August to late-September movement is noise, method, or a shift in how voters identify with the two old parties.
Looking at what this means for the Beehive, a smaller purple vote does not decide anything by itself. Polls are snapshots. Undecideds, turnout, and electorate seats still shape the House. But if the combined share stays near current levels, both major blocs would need to manage more relationships to govern. That puts a premium on discipline, on agreements that hold, and on understanding where the non-purple vote goes.
