Bolsonaro Leads Lula Into Runoff With Pledge to Rewrite Brazil's Constitution
Flávio Bolsonaro promised to “re-democratise” Brazil after finishing ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential election. The Guardian
The senator took 47% of the vote, while Lula took about 45%. Reuters Neither candidate passed 50%, which triggers a runoff under Brazilian rules. That second vote is set for 25 October. Reuters
Bolsonaro and Lula will contest that runoff on 25 October, with Bolsonaro described as the favourite. The Guardian The Guardian described Bolsonaro in October 2026 as the far-right frontrunner to become Brazil's next president. He has won endorsements from right-wing rivals for the runoff. Reuters
He made the “re-democratise” remarks at a campaign event in Goiânia. He said he would use the larger far-right presence in Congress to change the constitution, the set of basic rules for government. The Guardian El País reported on 7 October 2026 that Bolsonaro announced on Tuesday his intention to reform the constitution to redemocratize Brazil. El País described him as a right-wing candidate who hopes to win Brazil's presidential election before the end of October 2026.
The Guardian published its report on the vow on 7 October 2026 under the headline “'Another coup d'état': fears grow as Flávio Bolsonaro vows to 're-democratise' Brazil.” Brazil was last re-democratised in the 1980s after a 21-year dictatorship. The Guardian The V-Dem institute, which measures the health of democracies, ranks Brazil 28th on its liberal democracy index, two places ahead of the UK and 23 ahead of the US.
That ranking sits alongside a recent conviction. Jair Bolsonaro was jailed for 27 years for trying to engineer a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula. Brazil's supreme court found Jair Bolsonaro guilty of trying to convince military chiefs to help him cling to power at the end of his 2018-2022 presidency. The Guardian
The broader context here is the tension between winning votes and rewriting rules. A frontrunner who proposes constitutional reform through a stronger bloc in Congress is working inside democratic procedure, much like using seats won in parliament to pass amendments. Framing that reform as re-democratisation lands differently in Brazil, where democracy returned after military rule and where a former president was imprisoned for coup plotting. Judges, opposition lawmakers and civil society groups hear it through that history. Both views will coexist through the runoff. Rhetoric alone cannot settle which one holds. The working questions are concrete: what provisions would change, by what majorities, and under what judicial review.
Looking to the 25 October contest, the math is tight. A two-point first-round lead leaves little cushion for lost votes or low turnout. Endorsements from eliminated right-wing candidates consolidate one side, while Lula keeps a near-equal base that makes turnout and abstention decisive. The constitutional talk also raises the stakes of the legislative results already decided, since any reform depends on votes in Congress rather than presidential will alone. For diplomats, investors and multilateral bodies, the run-up is less about picking a winner than mapping constraints: court doctrine after the Jair Bolsonaro verdict, veto points in Congress, and how much weight to give promises made at campaign events such as Goiânia.
