Five from five for City, but history says slow down

Manchester City have won five out of five. Do not hand them the trophy yet.

City sit top of the Premier League with a perfect 15 points after five games of the 2026-27 season, according to BBC Sport. Arsenal are closest behind on 12 points, with Brighton third on 10 points after five games.

That sounds decisive. The numbers say it is early. Very early.

Over the last 10 Premier League seasons, 138 out of 200 teams finished within four places of where they were after five games. Twenty-seven finished in exactly the same spot in May as they held in September.

Big swings are rare. Only 12 teams in the last decade moved up or down by double digits after the five-game mark. Three of those came last season alone.

Last season tells both sides of the story. Thirteen of the 20 sides finished within four places of their early position. Eventual champions Arsenal were second after five games. Sunderland were seventh after five games and finished seventh.

The bottom of the table gave the strongest warning. Two of the three relegated sides, the three teams that drop out of the division, were already in the bottom three after five games.

But there were escapes and collapses too. Aston Villa climbed from the bottom three after five games to finish in the top four, the places that bring Champions League football. Tottenham Hotspur went the other way and dropped to finish 17th.

The pattern holds further back. The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished as the top eight at the end of that season, although not in the same order.

For the title race, the lead is a slippery thing. The side top after five games went on to win the league in only one of the last six seasons, and three times in the last 11 seasons.

City know that feeling well. They won their first five games in 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2023-24, and lifted the title in only one of those three seasons, in 2023-24. Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season all held a 100% record after five games and did not finish as champions.

What makes this stand out is where the winners come from. The eventual champions have sat in the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns. The last team outside the top two at that stage to win it was City in 2021-22, when they were fifth with 10 points.

So five games matter. They set the shape of the season. They rarely settle it.