Trump Rules Out Iran Strike Before Midterms as Hormuz Talks Continue
US President Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.
In a Truth Social post late on Thursday, October 8, Trump said the US is having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. He said the US "will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd." Al Jazeera Midterm elections decide control of Congress halfway through a presidential term, so the date sets a clear political calendar.
Oil prices fell early on Friday, October 9. Traders were less worried about a disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East after Trump's comments ruling out military action before the vote.
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is reviewing the US response to Iran's seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries much of the world's oil by ship. He said Tehran will respond within the next few days.
Iranian media reported massive explosions in the southern Strait of Hormuz on Friday. Fars, citing unnamed military sources, said tankers using unauthorised routes may have struck sea mines.
US Vice President JD Vance said Iran must make a meaningful reduction in uranium enrichment capacity as part of an agreement to end the war. Enrichment is the process that makes nuclear fuel, which can be used for civilian energy or, at high levels, for weapons.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said negotiations with Washington were futile. He accused the US of using negotiations to attack Iran.
Russian President Vladimir Putin told Pezeshkian that Russia will do everything to help end the US-led war on Iran. Al Jazeera
The broader context here is a negotiation running on two clocks. One is electoral. A promise of no attack before November 3 gives markets, shippers, and regional governments a fixed date to plan around. The other is operational. A seven-day plan for Hormuz, a reply expected within days, and new explosion reports shorten the time for decisions.
In my view, the public statements show how far apart the sides remain. Trump describes productive talks. Vance names a technical condition on enrichment. Araghchi confirms receipt of a US reply without accepting it. Pezeshkian rejects the talks as cover for attack. Those positions can sit side by side during back-and-forth diplomacy. They cannot both hold in a final deal.
Looking at what this means for the next few days, order matters. Araghchi's reply will show whether the Hormuz plan can lower tensions or just adds more papers. More detail on the explosions, including which routes were used and what caused them, will shape safety judgments for shipping. And Putin's offer adds a third capital with its own interests.
