Washington's 3rd District: A Trump-Won Seat That Could Decide the House
Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is running for reelection against Republican state Sen. John Braun in Washington's 3rd Congressional District NPR.
The district covers southwest Washington state. Vancouver is its largest city. President Trump carried the district three times, but Gluesenkamp Perez flipped it to Democrats in 2022 NPR.
The seat was held before by former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler. She lost the 2022 primary after voting to impeach Trump over the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol NPR.
Braun is the Republican nominee. He serves as Washington state Senate minority leader, the top Republican in that chamber. He is endorsed by Trump NPR.
Gluesenkamp Perez has won the seat twice, according to July reporting on the race. Democrats likely need her to hold it to have a path to a House majority NPR.
The Cook Political Report shifted the race from toss-up to lean Democratic. Toss-up means either party could win. Lean Democratic means forecasters see a small Democratic edge The Seattle Times.
Looking at what this means for House math, the stakes are direct. Control often comes down to a small group of districts that vote one way for president and another way for the House. Washington's 3rd is one of them. If Gluesenkamp Perez holds ground Trump won, Democrats keep a firewall. If Braun turns Trump's strength there into a House win, Republicans add cushion.
The broader context here is incumbency against national politics. Gluesenkamp Perez has two wins in Trump-won territory. Braun brings leadership experience in the state Senate and alignment with Trump. The Cook shift shows forecasters now put more weight on her record in the seat than on the district's presidential vote. Voters will test that call in November.
