Social Security COLA: 3.6% Projected for 2027 After 2.8% in 2026
AARP projects a 3.6 percent Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2027, about $75 more a month for the average retired worker. AARP A COLA is the annual increase tied to inflation. This figure is a projection ahead of the official decision.
The rate in checks now is the 2026 COLA of 2.8 percent, set by the Social Security Administration on October 24, 2025. Nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries saw that increase starting in January 2026, and benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for 75 million Americans rose 2.8 percent in 2026. Social Security Administration Social Security Administration That followed a 2.5 percent COLA for 2025. The 2.8 percent increase added about $56 to the average monthly check from 2025. CNBC
The 2026 earnings limits apply alongside the COLA. Full retirement age is the age set for full benefits. For people under that age for all of 2026, the limit is $24,480, with $1 withheld from benefits for every $2 earned above it. For people reaching full retirement age in 2026, the limit is $65,160 on earnings before that birthday month, with $1 withheld for every $3 earned above it. People at full retirement age or older keep all benefits regardless of earnings. Social Security Administration
Anyone still receiving paper checks must use the Department of the Treasury's Go Direct website to request electronic payments. Social Security Administration The Administration has scheduled its next COLA announcement for October 2026. Social Security Administration
The broader context here is how these pieces compound. Think of it like interest stacking. A 3.6 percent increase, if confirmed, would build on top of the 2.8 percent 2026 base rather than replace it. That stacking shapes cash-flow planning. The 2.5 percent rate for 2025 shows the recent range already in forecasts. Working beneficiaries below full retirement age face two resets each year. The COLA resets the benefit level while the earnings limits reset the amount you can earn without a withholding, and the withholding rate shifts in the year you reach full retirement age.
Looking at what this means for the October 2026 decision, a projection is not a payment. The estimate is not payable yet. The AARP figure frames expectations for the average retired worker check. The official rate will set the payable increase for the two groups seen in the 2026 cycle, nearly 71 million Social Security beneficiaries and 75 million Americans including SSI. January was the start date for the 2026 cycle. For advisers, the earnings-test math often drives decisions about extra work income late in the year. Until the Administration publishes, the 2026 rules remain the binding inputs for withholding math and benefit estimates.
