UK Grocery Inflation at 2.5% as Promotions Hold Up Sales

UK supermarket prices were 2.5% higher than a year earlier in the four weeks to 4 October, up from 2.3% the month before, according to Worldpanel by Numerator Worldpanel by Numerator. That year on year comparison measures prices against the same period last year. Take-home sales at grocers rose 1.0% over the same four weeks.

Spending on grocery promotions was more than £250m higher than last year over the past month, according to Worldpanel The Guardian.

Over the 12 weeks to 4 October, Tesco sales rose 1% and the retailer held a 27.8% market share, or share of total grocery spending. Sainsbury's sales rose 1.3% with a 15.2% share. Asda held an 11.5% share.

Aldi held a 10.5% share with sales up 0.4% from a year earlier. Lidl held an 8.6% share with sales up 7.1% from a year earlier. Grocery sales at Marks & Spencer rose 14.9%. Ocado sales rose 12.4%, compared with 5.5% growth for online grocery as a whole.

About 1.2 million households bought a pumpkin in the latest four weeks, up 10% from the same time last year. More than 250,000 households bought a pumpkin spice coffee in the latest four weeks. Like for like chocolate confectionery prices, which compare the same products over time, were 3% lower than a year ago.

UK grocery sales rose 2.5% from a year earlier in the four-week period reported on 18 August 2026, when 31.3% of sales included a deal Reuters.

The broader context here is a market trying to manage prices and sales volumes at the same time. That August reading gives a baseline for how common deals were before the autumn seasonal lift. Inflation of 2.5% with take-home growth of 1.0% points to pressure on the number of items sold, with retailers using promotions to protect shopping baskets. Shoppers are not all moving the same way, with discount, premium and online-only retailers all finding growth. Different shopping trips are going to different stores.

In my view, the weeks ahead will depend on two things: how deeply retailers discount versus letting prices recover, and whether Halloween buying brings forward spending on treats like chocolate. Lower chocolate prices alongside more pumpkin buying suggest stores are setting low prices early to bring shoppers in. The October data will matter less for the 2.5% figure itself than for how that promotion spending is split between everyday staples and seasonal ranges as stores prepare for year-end.