ASML Reports Oct. 14: Can Orders Justify a Third Sales Raise?
ASML will report its third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, October 14, at 07:00 CET via GlobeNewswire. ASML Investor Relations
That release lands one day after today, October 13, 2026. The full-year sales outlook is the central variable.
The outlook in focus
ASML has lifted its annual sales forecast twice this year. It now projects 2026 sales of €43 billion to €45 billion, according to a MarketWatch earnings preview published October 12, 2026. MarketWatch That range was reported as $49 billion to $51 billion. Reuters The question in that preview is whether improved visibility on customer demand supports a third increase.
The starting point for 2026 was far lower. In October 2025, ASML said its 2026 sales would at worst hold flat with around €32.5 billion ($37.82 billion) in 2025. Reuters A year earlier, in October 2024, it said it expected 2025 total net sales to grow to a range between €30 billion and €35 billion. Reuters
Last quarter and orders
The second quarter gives the most recent sales reference. Analysts expected second-quarter revenue to rise by almost 15% from a year earlier to €8.81 billion ($10.1 billion). MarketWatch A separate MarketWatch preview citing Visible Alpha consensus put expected sales at €8.83 billion ($10.08 billion). MarketWatch
Orders have moved up and down in past cycles. ASML reported a 71% year-on-year drop in orders while still forecasting a sales uptick by 2025. MarketWatch In the 2025 cycle, shares rallied from a low of €597 in August to almost €900 ahead of third-quarter earnings. MarketWatch
The broader context here is the split between sales and bookings. Sales, the income-statement number, records machines already delivered and accepted. Bookings, or new orders, set expectations for future sales. A quarter can meet on sales but miss on orders, or the reverse, and the market often moves on the second leg. Into October 14, the debate is less about one sales print and more about whether order intake validates the €43 billion to €45 billion range or creates room above it.
In my view, two mechanics matter for reading any change. First, currency translation. The euro range and its dollar equivalent imply a shifting exchange-rate assumption, so read revisions without that currency effect before judging demand. A raise in euros sends a different signal than a raise driven by translation. Second, phasing. After two upward revisions, the rest of the upside rests on fourth-quarter shipment timing and customer acceptance. Cash collected on systems shipped late in the quarter will matter as much as the sales figure itself.
